[Reasons for the surge in U.S. stocks and its impact on the market]
Yesterday, the US stock market surged, mainly due to the analysis and forecast of US CPI data by professionals. It is predicted that this month's US CPI will drop from 4.9% last month to about 4%, so it is speculated that the Federal Reserve may suspend interest rate hikes in June. In addition, congressmen also proposed a proposal to reorganize the SEC. These news are relatively favorable to the market.
[Changes in the correlation between US stocks and cryptocurrencies]
Although the correlation between US stocks and cryptocurrencies has hit a new low since 2023, I do not recommend analyzing them in conjunction. However, at present, there is a common point in the driving logic of the two increases, that is, the impact on interest rate hikes. Therefore, if the interest rate hike is suspended, June will be a good opportunity for a rebound. We need to pay attention to whether the main funds will participate in the rebound and how they will arrange the specific steps.
【Short-term market analysis】
The latest analysis shows that the market may rebound today or tomorrow. If it rebounds today, the strength is expected to be average; if it rebounds tomorrow, the strength is expected to be stronger. However, it should be noted that if the expected rebound does not occur in the next two days, especially if there is no rebound tomorrow, it may lead to market volatility for several days or a new round of decline.
Hello everyone, today we will take a look at the latest market and related operation strategy outlook. In terms of the daily trend, we can observe a highly similar memory awakening, that is, the Yang cross and Yin cross appear side by side after the Yin line. Similar to the previous time, as long as there is no Yin line entity today, the probability of rebound will be high.
At the close of tomorrow, we will welcome the closing of the 2-day line. According to the past trend, there are two ways to play the 2-day line. One is that a line that continues to rebound appears after the parallel line or the cross star, forming a morning star pattern, which is similar to the U-shaped rebound corresponding to the previous falling negative line. The other situation is that the K line directly appears a big positive line on the day, forming a U-shape with the previous falling negative line. From a probability point of view, the probability of the former situation is higher, so we may see a strong rebound today, of course, it may also be a relatively flat trend, and we need to pay attention to the operation rhythm of the main funds.
There are still 5 trading days this week, which can accommodate 2 3-day lines. We hope to form a parallel line trend at the close of the 16th, and no higher increase is needed. Then between the 16th and the 19th, we hope to see the emergence of a positive line and push the index to the 27500-27850 area to match the closing of the weekly line.
The 5-day line will close on the 17th. The current shape does not look ideal, but it can be reversed at any time, which is a typical feature of the stock market's shocks. Since the space is not large, it is still in the reversal range, so we can enjoy the opportunity of free rise and fall to a certain extent.
For the weekly trend, we expect it to follow a similar trend, as shown in the figure below. Of course, this is just an expectation or a fantasy of many parties, and whether it will be realized requires subsequent verification. This trend is not a random guess, because the market has been playing a similar shock method since January 22.
As for the altcoins, we can compare them ourselves. In recent days, altcoins have not fallen sharply, but instead formed a pattern similar to the 3K shock. This pattern will either continue to shock or trigger a strong rebound. Simply put, it is the difference between the U-type and the W-type. The former is a direct rebound, and the speed of rise is equivalent to the speed of decline; while the latter is that the rise fails to meet expectations once, and it falls again and then rises again, forming a W shape as a whole. This echoes the rebound window of today and tomorrow mentioned at the beginning of the article. If it can rise successfully, then today and tomorrow will be opportunities for a rebound; if the rise is blocked, then this week will basically be wasted, and you will need to wait for next week's opportunity. You can compare the following figure for yourself:
To sum up, overall, the market does not have too many problems, but we need to be more patient in the ink stage. In terms of operation, the current volatility is not large, which is consistent with yesterday's operation strategy. For Bitcoin, you can still use the parallel line low point as a stop loss and go long; for Ethereum, you can use $1,712 as a stop loss. These operations have a certain rationality in the short term, but the safety is still uncertain. If the stop loss is triggered, then for Bitcoin, you can consider operating in the range of $24,300-24,900; for Ethereum, you can operate in the range of $1,620-1,670, and the reasonable stop loss levels are $23,600 and $1,610. For spot holders, you need to be patient and wait for opportunities to come.
Thank you for your attention. This article only represents personal opinions. Please be cautious when investing. I wish you all a smooth investment and good returns! #合约锦标赛 #BinanceTournament #feedfeverchallenge
