Where is the bull market now? Does the copycat still have a chance?
First, let's review this round of market conditions. Only by reviewing the past can we know the new.
This round of bull market conditions is driven by funds entering with Bitcoin as the core.
Market leader: Bitcoin (BTC)
Drive core: funds + narrative
Main funds: ETF
Narrative: expectations of the end of interest rate hikes + interest rate cuts, expectations of Bitcoin halving, inscriptions (asset issuance methods), expectations of ETFs, landing funds entering + emotional promotion
1. Bottom foundation: Bitcoin emotional bottom, K-line bottom
2. Bitcoin trend is the result of a combination of good news
Reasons for the current weak market conditions:
1. ETF expectations landing
2. ETF funds entering from small to large
In, until recently returned to a stable state of entry and exit (lower emotional attention)
3. Bitcoin halving is approaching
4. Chip exchange, the main force needs to continue to wash out a large number of previous profit-taking plates near the new high
5. Market emotional overdraft
It is difficult for us to know where and when this wave of main forces will wash. From a technical perspective, 62000U and 59000u are still very strong supports and are worth entering. As for when to wash, as long as the washing is above 62000, the longer it is, the more conducive it will be to pull up later. The main force is very scarce and will not use space to exchange chips. This is not cost-effective. Using pins and using time to wash the market is most in line with the interests of the main force.
About the hot spot cottage season:
This round of funds has always been in and out of Bitcoin. All funds from Bitcoin have entered the hot spots and cottages with favorable expectations. The bigger the hot spot narrative, the longer the market will last. With the increase in the number of currencies, it is difficult to see the overall cottage market in 21 years, at least before the end of the bull market. I personally think that this hot season should last until the end of the bull market. Click the main leaf to follow the public account: Bifangshe, free skirt ban
Conclusion: It is difficult for Bitcoin to fall sharply. It is currently in a resting stage after continuous pull-ups, which is equivalent to the mid-term of the bull market.
My personal main position is Bitcoin, as old fans know, but the upward height of Bitcoin is already limited. It is only a few dozen points away from 10w+. Many people will not choose big cakes, so most people now have a lot of copycats. So what if I didn’t listen to Brother Monkey before and missed the main uptrend of Bitcoin?
Don’t worry, I think Ethereum will take over from Bitcoin to lead the market in the second half.
Market leader in the second half: Ethereum (ETH)
Promoting core: funds + narrative + functions [pledge (institutional and retail pledge) and deflation (ecological capabilities)]
Main funds: ETF
Narrative: ETF expectations + ETF implementation funds + emotional promotion, interest rate cut expectations + interest rate cut implementation capital inflow, ecological prosperity (deflation caused by users entering the application layer), Prague upgrade expectations
1. Bottom foundation: the bottom of Ethereum sentiment, the bottom of the Bitcoin exchange rate on the K line
2. Ethereum’s big gains in the second half are gradually increasing relative to Bitcoin’s, and we look forward to changes in the trend.
Let’s focus on the Prague upgrade (and part of it will be completed in the Osaka upgrade in 2025):
Prague is another important technology upgrade node after Cancun, focusing on staking (re-staking and trustless staking pool), account abstraction (wallet traffic entrance), and other system performance optimization. It is expected to be launched in the third quarter of 2024. Implemented on the Ethereum testnet and completed on the mainnet by the end of 2024. After this upgrade, staking and user usage will make a qualitative leap. The internal financial system and external traffic circulation are the core driving forces driving the price of Ethereum. With the continuous flow of funds in the second half of the bull market, I think Ethereum will have a good future. Performance.
Let’s talk about the upgrade narrative here: Because of the wealth effect of Shanghai’s upgrade, everyone’s expectations for the Cancun upgrade have been overdrafted for too long, so the related market has not been as enthusiastic as the Shanghai upgrade. The retail investors’ attention that I told Brother Monkey before has been very high. It’s a big relationship and everyone should pay attention to it. Almost no one mentioned Prague this time. This is the result of everyone’s disappointment with the market in Cancun, so we need to pay more attention to it!
I am more optimistic about the currencies related to Ethereum: SSV, ETHFI, ENA, STRK, BICO, the game family bucket, and some wallet projects with the abstract concept of accounts (C98, TWT, etc.) I don’t know what to buy, callback Come down and you can get these.
I think that after Bitcoin and a half, Ethereum will most likely start to move. The specific time node, I personally feel, is this month. I will see it as I go. The degree of market certainty will be determined, but I can be sure. Yes, the protagonist of the second half is Ethereum, just like I milked Bitcoin every day last year.
Finally, I have a message for everyone. It is what Lei Jun said: Weida’s enterprises are all built through hard work!
The same goes for the leeks who can make a lot of money in the crypto market.
Be patient and endure!
