[The Fool’s Theory in the Currency Circle丨Three kinds of deceptions in investment, this is why you can’t get to A8! 】

Investment is a random process, which is both the fascination that everyone flocks to and the source of lies that deceive the smartest minds in the world.

In the currency circle, April Fools' Day is actually celebrated every day. The dealer fools the leeks, and the smart leeks harvest the dull leeks. In this uncertain market, how are we being deceived?

1. Being deceived by experience

Tell a little story:

@RayDalio said that when he started trading stocks at a young age, the U.S. stock market was in its golden age. At that time, as long as you put money in, any stock you bought would go up, so everyone invested with their eyes closed and he just bought some, and it doubled in a short time.

He used to think that investing in stocks was that easy, until the U.S. stock market went sideways in the 1960s. Looking at the 100-year Dow Jones Index chart below, you can see that there was a very long flat index at that time. In 1965, the Dow Jones Index was at 910 points, and in 1982 it was at 884 points. It has been fluctuating in this range and has never risen again.

During this period, Dalio discovered that all his investment knowledge was wrong.

People as smart as Dalio don't realize that the failure of past experience when switching cycles is terrible.

2. Being deceived by data

For example: When studying the stock market, many people try to use the number of new account openings to judge the future rise and fall of the stock market, and data show that indeed, there is a strong correlation between the number of new securities account openings and the rise and fall of the stock market. But the heart of the matter is its cause-and-effect relationship. Is it the increase in the number of new account openings that causes the stock market to rise, or does the rise in the stock market attract more investors?

Will the data on U.S. CPI, non-farm payrolls, interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts definitely become the decisive factors for the rise and fall?#Bitcoinhalving, will you definitely get decent returns on your position?

Experience is the self-feeling of our limited sample, which possesses two qualities of a fool: few data points and emotionality. The contingency in investment makes it difficult for blind summarization and induction to get close to the truth, especially short-term results, which often only become "liars" that interfere with your rational judgment.

This may lead to two results -

Summarizing several lucky successes into a ridiculous investment logic

Summarize several accidental failures into an unnecessary lesson

Therefore, in the currency circle, you need enough experience samples. Experience + thinking is the best way to approach the truth.

It may take you dozens of failures to slowly figure out your own money-making theory, which is the real golden key to earning your own profits.

3. Being deceived by oneself

Even if you master the true meaning of making money, it still does not mean that you will not be deceived again. Many times, it is ourselves who really deceives us. Most people cannot escape the following human weaknesses -

fear and greed

pessimism and fantasy

opinionated

Suspicious by nature

Eager for quick success

Any certain judgment will change with the passage of time and subtle changes in external conditions, and that "treasure you thought was a hundred times a thousand times more" may also become the biggest source of fooling yourself.

Don't forget that Livermore, the most famous and successful trader in American history, finally left the world in poverty.

So the currency circle is not that simple, 90% are fools, and 99% cannot reach A8.

I want to patiently hoard coins and accompany you through suffering.

If you want to ruffle some feathers, Zeroing is waiting for you.

I want to sit in my skirt and listen to the class, and I will brainwash you and serve you.

If you want to stay away from the currency circle, sudden wealth will tempt you.

The essence is to give you a dream, give you an opportunity, give you a lesson, and give you a hope of living towards death.

This is fine, in the currency circle, it is difficult to make money with iq100, and it is also difficult to make money with iq0. It is good to be a fool with iq50, enjoy every ounce of excitement here, and pay for your love!

That’s all! Happy April Fools' Day!#币圈投资策略

I am the God of Wealth, a veteran in the currency industry, and I only tell the truth. If you are interested in the currency circle and want to get started quickly but feel confused, please follow me and contact me through the homepage. I will provide you with real, valuable advice to help you move forward steadily. Let’s explore, grow and create brilliance in the currency circle together!