Author: p3nchan
Compiled by: DA Trader Association
Date of writing: 2023/05/09
Preface
SUI was airdropped on major exchanges a while ago, and everyone in the DA Traders Alliance was very happy. Sui mining and SUI sales were discussed every day. If you havenât followed this wave, it doesnât matter. Donât miss the craze of new currency listings and possible bargain hunting opportunities! At the same time, this article will also mention Little Penguinâs views on ARB and BLUR, so letâs read on!
When describing blockchain and cryptocurrencies, be aware of capitalization
When describing blockchain and cryptocurrencies, you need to pay attention to capitalization. Taking Bitcoin as an example, "Bitcoin" refers to the Bitcoin blockchain, "bitcoin" refers to the Bitcoin token itself, and the capital abbreviation "BTC" is used to represent the Bitcoin token in general communication. So Sui represents the Sui blockchain itself, and sui or SUI represents the native token on the Sui blockchain.
About Sui and its token SUI post-listing situation
After studying various reports, Little Penguin believes that although Sui is unlikely to become the killer Layer 1 public chain of Ethereum, it still has unique features in terms of technology, such as a modular transaction mechanism (which is why the language it uses is called Move reasons), independent asset recording form to ensure security, etc. These characteristics also allow Sui's TPS theoretical value to reach a speed that is difficult to achieve by other public chains.
During the call auction of SUI before the exchange opened, a large number of buy and sell orders once appeared at 2.5 USDT. Call auction is similar to pre-market matching, that is, buyers and sellers respectively place price limit orders that they are willing to buy or sell, thus forming a form of "auction". A similar situation occurred later at 1.8 USDT.
SUI once rose to 1.7 USDT on OKX after opening, and even reached a high of 2.0 USDT on Binance.
It hovered around 1.3 USDT for the next few days until it fell to 1.1 USDT recently (5/11).
Next, we will analyze recently issued coins and refer to their trends. Since the correlation between different currencies and SUI is different, Little Penguin will attach the fundamental correlation as a reference. At the same time, due to the impact of general environmental factors, including the overall economy or macroeconomics, Bitcoin prices, government policies, U.S. stocks, etc., please appropriately combine your own technical analysis methods for evaluation.
Letâs GOïŒ
Review: APT â Aptos public chain
Currency characteristic correlation: â â â â â . Aptos is the twin brother of Sui and is also a Layer 1 public chain built using the Move language.
The listing price of APT is 1 USDT. After listing, it reached 15 USDT on OKX and 100 USDT on Binance. In the following 18 days (about 3 weeks), the price hovered between 7 and 10 USDT.
Bottom-end accumulation is carried out from 18 days to 81 days after the listing of the currency. During this period, the price was between 3 ~ 5 USDT for about 9 weeks. This price has dropped by approximately 50% compared to the initial stage after listing.
During this period, trading volume gradually decreased, then exploded and started to rise. It can be said that it presents a typical accumulation pattern.
From 81 days to 99 days after the currency was listed, the price experienced a rapid rise in the past three weeks, with the largest increase from 3.07 to 20.42 USDT, exceeding 600%.
According to the trend summary of APT, it started to fall after 3 weeks of consolidation after listing, and after 9 weeks of consolidation, it rose strongly for 3 weeks. If there is a contraction in volume during the second phase of the wash, you may consider purchasing in batches.
Review: OP â Optimism Ethereum Layer 2 public chain
Currency characteristic correlation: â â . Optimism is an Ethereum Layer 2 public chain that uses the Optimistic Rollup verification method and has a low correlation with Sui.
The OP listed price was 0.4 USDT. Despite the opening frenzy, the price once rose to 1.65 USDT, and then fell to around 0.4 ~ 0.65 USDT within the next 12 days.
Around 0.4 ~ 0.65 USDT, which is close to the currency listing price, the stock was reduced and began to rise 45 days after the currency was listed.
The rise reached an all-time high of 2.4 USDT 64 days after listing. This is only about 19 days before the end of the fundraising.
After OP experienced another strong rise, the large cycle triangle converged and ushered in a second rise. During this period, we also experienced a process of shrinking to the extreme (see the tail of convergence).
According to the OPâs trend summary: the market fluctuated and fell within 2 weeks after the currency was listed, followed by a 5-week reduction in capital accumulation, and reached ATH within 2 weeks.
Analysis: ARB â Arbitrum Ethereum Layer 2 public chain
Currency characteristic correlation: â â . Arbitrum, the Ethereum Layer 2 public chain that also uses Optimistic Rollup, also has a low correlation with Sui.
ARB was listed at 0.5 USDT and rose to 1.82 USDT over the 26-day period. It is currently on a downward trend.
Since ARB has not been listed for a long time, we can only estimate what may happen. According to OP's line chart calculation, if the trend is similar, it may continue to decline in the future and accumulate funds close to the listing price of 0.5 USDT or above. If volume and price stabilize during an accumulation period that lasts for more than 5 weeks or longer, consider buying at the lows, as past action suggests another decline to near the previous low may occur before a strong move up. The same thing happened with APT, which is relatively uncorrelated to ARB, so entering on another dip would be a viable strategy.
Analysis: BLUR â NFT Exchange
Currency characteristic correlation: â . Blur is an NFT trading market with a built-in aggregator and is not closely related to Sui.
BLUR was listed at 0.1 USDT and reached 1.4 USDT within 5 days after listing.
Itâs been 87 days now and BLUR is still in relative bottom condition. Judging from the trading volume, the current volume is shrinking and is at a stable consolidation bottom.
From a weekly perspective, BLUR reached a record high one week after its listing (excluding the craze for listing), and experienced an 11-week consolidation period. If the subsequent bottom-breaking is not significant, you may consider holding spot shares. Reference stop loss for entry on the left: aggressively guard 0.3758, about -15% risk, conservative guard 0.3891, about -12% risk. However, the status of Bitcoin still needs to be observed in the future.
Analysis: SUI entry status
On the daily line, SUI did not surge higher within a week like other recently listed currencies, which should be related to the market itself being in consolidation and decline. For long-term holders, especially those with costs below 0.1 USDT, there should be no special concern. For traders who want to buy the bottom, there is currently no clear entry opportunity. It is recommended to proceed with a long-term layout, as described below:
SUI subsequently declines and consolidates for periods of 5 weeks or more.
During the consolidation period, there was a shrinkage at the daily level.
During the consolidation period, if the bottom is broken, it will only be around -10% ~ 15% of the previous low and not reach -20%.
When these conditions are met, you can consider purchasing spot goods in separate warehouses. Remember to strictly abide by the stop loss. If the stop loss exceeds the expected stop loss, the strategy should be strictly implemented. According to the current market environment, if there is a subsequent rise, it is not recommended to hold it for a long time. You can refer to "Bitcoin Halving Countdown!" Novices will know time and price analysis after reading this. Little Penguin will take you to analyze the method of touching the top and buying the bottom, as described in the article.
The above strategies are for sharing only. It is recommended that readers use their own familiar analysis methods, including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, etc., to make investment arrangements.
