4 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving
1. Pre-Halving Rally
Approximately 21 days remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024
And ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)
History has repeated in this respect
In fact, the Pre-Halving Rally breakout was a little ahead of schedule by a handful of days
Moreover, Bitcoin performed a historic, never-before-done feat in its price action in the Pre-Halving period by breaking to new All Time Highs...
That being said however, the upside momentum has since slowed
In fact, Bitcoin in recent weeks pulled back by -18%
It is clear that the "Pre-Halving Rally" phase has transitioned into the next phase in the Bitcoin Halving Cycle:
The "Pre-Halving Retrace" phase
As a result, it is very likely that the "Pre-Halving Rally" phase is over
Bitcoin has since transitioned into the "Pre-Halving Retrace" phase
2. Final Pre-Halving Retrace
A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a 28 to 14 days before the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)
In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep and lasted 3-4 days
In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep and lasted 56 days (8 weeks)
Currently, $BTC is 21 days away from the Halving, pulled back -18% last week, and since has recovered to ~$70000
If the Pre-Halving Retrace bottom is in...
BTC therefore would've repeated a lot of qualities from the Pre-Halving Retrace of 2020
After all, the most recent retrace was -18% deep and lasted 7 days or so
However, Bitcoin in 2024 also repeated some 2016-like qualities as well
Because Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving Retrace ~30 days before the Halving whereas in 2016 Bitcoin began its retrace 28 days before the Halving
As a result, it looks like Bitcoin may be repeating pieces of both 2016 and 2020 Pre-Halving price tendencies
But the goal of a Pre-Halving Retrace is three-fold:
a) To offer one final bargain-buying opportunity in the Pre-Halving period
b) To form the Range Low of the future Re-Accumulation Range
c) )
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