This is what I have learned from my nine years of speculation:
an ordinary person
If there is no one to lead the way or give guidance, you will have to rely entirely on yourself to realize it.
Basically, you have to go through three bull-bear cycles to make big money.
And it takes some talent and a little bit of luck
1/first cycle
Ordinary people lack information, resources, background, and guidance.
Therefore, only when the media reports overwhelmingly will the market pay attention to
And when you have just entered the market, you have no idea what fear is and what cruelty is.
Although your investment position is not large, you are full of ambition and kill everyone. You have never felt that money has been so easy to make.
After a small taste of the benefits, various myths of sudden wealth slowly appeared in the market.
You start to regret why you didn’t have Stud and lost the opportunity.
You start to increase your position and even add leverage
You are making money faster, you sigh, if you had known that the money was so easy to make, why would you have worked?
So when you want to do something big, you get fucked hard
As we all know, the time when the position is full is the bull's tail. It is the easiest time to make money, and it is also the time when the bubble is the most risky.
At this time, you only have ambition but no patience, and you will basically end up with a miserable loss.
As long as they are ordinary people, everyone behaves similarly.
2/Second cycle
Most people will not survive the first cycle of bear market
After experiencing the bull market, you resigned, and you have long denied the value of labor in your heart.
What's worse than losing off-site cash flow is that you become in debt after increasing leverage, and you have to pay principal and interest every month, and time becomes your enemy.
Various extremely narrow fluctuations + false breakthroughs + rapid declines in the bear market gradually make people despair.
You find it is too difficult to make money in the market at this time
Hotspots appear frequently, but it’s always a “few-day trip” until your ambitions are flattened
Once you "chasing the rise" you will lose money, but once you are no longer greedy and do "swings" you can occasionally make money.
The market has been punishing those who "boldly chase the rise" and rewards those who are "swinging"
The long bear market has caused everyone to form the "inertial thinking" of doing swing trading.
The bull market formula no longer applies
What will hit you the hardest is not losing money + being in debt. But you suddenly find yourself "good for nothing"
It turned out that I made money through luck, but now I have lost it due to my strength in the bear market.
This is in sharp contrast to you who are high-spirited in the bull market.
You are desperate, and you suddenly feel that the dull days at work were quite good.
You look at the coins that have fallen by 90% and then another 90%, and you think they are all scams.
At this time, those who have money have no courage, and those who have courage have no money.
You uninstalled the market software and returned to real life
Gradually, the bear market stopped fluctuating, and no one in the group spoke anymore.
At this time, the market quietly advanced, retreated, and continued to rise, until one day it suddenly hit a new high.
When you look at the coins you’ve been holding for several years, you finally get your money back.
At this time, there was still no one in the group talking, only occasionally one person asked: Is the cow coming?
As an old leek, you have experienced a severe beating in the bear market and finally survived. You breathed a sigh of relief and sold everything out of habit.
After recovering the cost, I no longer paid much attention to the market.
You don’t believe that the bull has come. Without incremental funds, how could the bull come so easily? Do you think the market will 100% fall back?
Unexpectedly, the market price after selling has become stronger and stronger. When it falls, you are very happy, but after a few days, it goes back up and reaches new highs.
Hot spots are also continuing and fermenting. People outside the circle are beginning to enter the market. Occasionally, there will be news that a few newcomers have made a lot of money.
And more and more brothers in the group are asking: Is it really awesome?
You find that many old leeks in the group who entered the market at the same time as you have either disappeared or stopped talking.
Some of them have lost money and been eliminated by the market; some have suffered badly in the bear market and are afraid of losing.
Most of the old leeks are like old brothers who quit gambling. After putting money from their daily work into the platform, their hands are trembling even when they place bets.
After becoming a frightened bird, I am afraid of losing, my self-confidence and enthusiasm are gone, and my ambition is naturally gone.
Even if this kind of thing still remains in the market, it is basically useless.
Chasing the rise? At this time, most of the old leeks have lost their courage and dare not participate in hot spots.
And you are very disdainful and unconvinced. You think this is a bubble and will collapse sooner or later. You think it is all a scam.
But it’s not enough to just watch the market rise. You can only be sure to buy the familiar old stocks from the last round.
Waiting until the market continues to hit new highs and in the second half of the mad cow period, the old leeks in the group begin to become active.
The cow is really coming
The old leek just started to participate in the new narrative to make some money
At this time, the old price in your hand starts to rise.
You know that the market is about to end, because you were in the market at this time in the last round, and you have been trading for three years.
Although you didn't make much money, the three years of the bear market taught you what risks and cruelties are, and you quietly cleared your positions.
After four or five years of ups and downs in the market, you don’t gain wealth, you gain experience.
I'm still upset this time, but I'm starting to face myself.
Therefore, although you will not lose money in the second cycle, you will still not be able to make big money if you have no ambition and only patience.
3/The third cycle
Only those with endurance and good understanding can get here. Going through a bear market + a complete bull-bear cycle is like a 5-year-old child experiencing two springs, summers, autumns and winters.
You begin to know that there are four seasons in the capital market.
And in summer, everyone will be so hot that they can’t help but be tempted to swim naked in the sea; but in winter, those who don’t go ashore and don’t put on clothes in time will freeze to death.
You also know that the sun will shine in winter and hail will fall in summer, but as time goes by, extreme weather can never escape the seasonal cycle.
You slowly discover the certainty of the market: seasons come and go, but human nature never changes.
The rules are surprisingly consistent, ups and downs, it turns out there is nothing new in the capital market
At this time, there are actually only a few people who have been staying in the market.
There are very few people who can be honest with themselves and are good at review.
They will summarize an investment system that suits them
No matter how bad it is, I still have some experience of market sentiment.
Munger once said:
“Successful people in the capital market often need a rare and contradictory dual attribute, that is, the coexistence of ambition and patience.”
At this time, you balance ambition and patience, and you have experience + self-decision
Therefore, in the third round of the bull market, if you can basically grasp the rhythm, making big money will come naturally.
If you are lucky, the wave of virtue accumulated by your ancestors can lead to wealth and freedom.
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Rui Xiaodan said in "The Way of Heaven":
As long as I don’t realize it and realize it, you can’t give it to me. Even if you give it to me#BOME #BTC #sol #热门话题 #ETH you can take it too. I can't help but think that only what I feel and understand can I possibly do, and what I can do is mine.
How much you can realize depends on your current state and experience; how much you can achieve depends on how much you can realize.
