Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Asher
On March 13, Ethereum successfully completed the Cancun upgrade and entered a new era of low transaction fees L2. However, the price of Ethereum did not show an independent strong rise, and basically kept the same rise and fall as other mainstream currencies. Comparing the "two neighbors next door", the community also jokingly said: "Congratulations to SOL and BNB for completing the Cancun upgrade."
Things that have made the "Ethereum maximalists" even more bald are not over yet - in the early hours of this morning, the US SEC postponed the approval of the VanEck Ethereum spot ETF, saying that it will decide whether to approve the ETF before May 23. At the same time, there are rumors that the Ethereum Foundation is under official investigation by a certain country or is part of a coordinated attack by the US SEC on Ethereum.
Under the combined influence of the two news, the price of Ethereum fell below US$3,100 in the short term, hitting a minimum of US$3,055, with a maximum drop of more than 5% in one hour. (Odaily Planet Daily Note: ETH has rebounded strongly with today’s market and is currently trading at 3529 USDT.)
US SEC delays VANECK Ethereum spot ETF
Although most people had already expected the result of the postponement of the Ethereum spot ETF, the final postponement still had a considerable impact on the market. According to the "public opinion" data of the prediction platform Polymarket, as of May 31 Today, the likelihood of Ethereum spot ETF approval continues to decline, currently only 22%.
Ethereum spot ETF approval probability
So, will the ETH spot ETF be further delayed or even rejected? Odaily Planet Daily has compiled the opinions of encryption practitioners and KOLs, as follows.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart:
There are currently concerns about whether the Ethereum spot ETF can pass in the short term. The US SEC has not interacted with issuers on Ethereum-specific issues. This is completely contrary to the situation with Bitcoin ETFs this fall. VanEck, Ark/21Shares and Grayscale should be in Delayed within the next 12 days. Moreover, the U.S. SEC will eventually reject the Ethereum ETF’s spot application on May 23, 2024.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas:
The chance of approval for the Ethereum spot ETF continues to decrease, with the chance of approval currently falling from 70% to 25%. Despite lower optimism, the SEC will only delay approval of the Ethereum ETF and not do so on May 23; however, there is still confidence that this will happen in the long-term outlook.
Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal:
Ethereum has always been crucial to the cryptocurrency field. It is a commodity, not a security. This is the position that the SEC has taken for many years. The SEC did not have sufficient reasons to reject the Ethereum ETF application.
FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett:
Optimism about the SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF by May 23 is waning. According to its conversations with people familiar with the matter, meetings in recent weeks have been largely one-sided, with issuers and custodians trying to drum up SEC staff to move forward, but staff have not (as they did with Bitcoin spot ETF application) to really get involved in a meaningful way.
Crypto KOLDCinvestor:
Although the postponement of the Ethereum Spot ETF caused the price of ETH to fall, a strong rebound soon occurred indicating that institutions were buying. It is believed that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved in May, which may push the price of Ethereum to $10,000.
Crypto KOLMatthew Hyland:
Negative coverage of the Ethereum spot ETF is entirely expected. Wall Street institutions must need an Ethereum spot ETF to buy Ethereum, just like they cannot buy Bitcoin without a Bitcoin ETF. It is only a matter of time before it is approved.
Currently, seven entities are applying for Ethereum ETFs, namely: BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco&Galaxy, Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares &Ark and Hashdex. The SEC approval deadline for each fund is as shown in the table below. May 23 will be the earliest application The key deadline for Ethereum spot ETFVanEck, its approval or rejection will also directly affect the decision-making results of other ETF applications.
Overall, with the postponement of this Ethereum spot ETF, market expectations for its adoption before the end of May have dropped significantly. Although some crypto KOLs still believe that it will pass smoothly in May, compared with spot Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum's PoS mechanism, price manipulation and securitization risks reduce the possibility of spot Ethereum ETFs being approved. Perhaps, we need to be mentally prepared for another postponement of the Ethereum ETF.
