View will be for medium and long term. Plan will have a short-term plan.
🔸 View:
🔸 1/ Currently we are still in the bull market and in the past 2 weeks the market has adjusted => cooled down.
This cooling down is a good sign for the market in general because the market has been increasing hotly for 6 consecutive months. If it continues to increase as hotly as it did 6 months ago, the game will be too easy, leading to the bull run story of the whole cycle possibly ending sooner. This cooling down is simply for the market as well as whale/OG/MM to collect back what people have pumped out to you over the past time and create a price base for more sustainable growth.
If both market psychology and price lines are balanced again, the peak timing of the cycle will last longer, specifically until Q2/2025. Creating this price base will also help $BTC grow better long term over the cycle, towards $100k, $150k, $200k or even $500k.
🔸 2/ What will happen when the market cools down?
There are two possible scenarios:
🔹 The market plunged in price, went bankrupt quickly and recovered quickly. This case is less likely because simply doing so would only eliminate the group using excessive leverage as well as the all-in meme teams.
🔹 Market sideway in wide margin, 50k - 70k$, long odds for many months. This is the main driving method of this cycle. In general, both the leveraged futu team and the spot team will also be breathing heavily due to depressed psychology as well as altcoins being continuously wiped out.
🔸 3/ Price areas to note
These are good support areas for prices to bounce back.
🔹 Zone 65k - 58k5: First support of $BTC in this correction
🔹 Zone 53 - 50k: If the above area is perforated, return here. This area, in addition to being hard support, will be supported by many EMAs.
🔸 4/ About the cash flow of altcoins
🔹 Mid/low cap altcoins are still maintaining an uptrend and are entering the gray zone (power transfer zone between $BTC and altcoins). When entering a turbulent area, there will definitely be shaking. We still see an uptrend and the trend line keeps this trend going up.
Altcoin mid/low cap cash flow chart (copy paste into trading view then press Alt+I to reverse):
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D+CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D+CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D+CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D
🔹 TOTAL3 - All big and small altcoins. The general trend is still increasing. Paragraphs 667B - 628B are supported. As long as it can be maintained, the door to 800B$ is still bright.
The long-wave Buy/Sell Signal I often use also shows that collecting altcoins is now much safer.
🔸 5/ Long-term macro signals are extremely bullish
🔹 Interest rates are still high and the Fed is still threatening to reduce interest rates in the future. A reduction in interest rates is certain this year but it is impossible to time it. There is new information that it will not decrease in the first half of the year, but will decrease in the second half of the year. And reducing interest rates in the short term will cause prices to decrease but the medium and long term will increase.
🔹 Stablecoin flow: clear upward trend in $USDT. In $USDC and $DAI, pumping has just begun => There is still a lot of room for growth.
🔹 Bitcoin Spot ETF: Grayscale is still the strongest seller. This is TradFi's cash flow. The cash flow is huge. But personally, in my opinion, this money has not been poured in much. Because TradFi is a team with a lot of money, but the money must flow slowly. To amplify this cash flow, corporations must train sales/operations staff, set up systems, and there are many registration applications with the SEC related to transparency of sales/holdings. This process usually takes 1-3 months after the approval date (January 11). After preparing everything, corporations go on sale, attracting customers through many different channels. Total cash inflow is currently 12B$, which is still too little. For example, BlackRock is managing 9000B$ and they only allocate 1% of that amount to $BTC, it is already 90B$, 9 times more than it is now.
=> To summarize the overall market:
Short term: shaking, shaking, depression
Medium term: Bullish
Long term: Super bullish
🔸 Plan
The opportunity to consolidate goods is open to those who still have a lot of money. Those who are in the 2023 group and have had a long-standing position do not need to worry because the market will increase again anyway. Therefore, this is a good opportunity for newcomers to build a position for the medium and long term instead of earning a living in the short term. There are a few notes for the future:
No futu/excessive leverage. This is the easiest way to help you no longer have money to play in bull run.
Maintain a bullish mentality. In bull run, dip for buying.
The adjustment is to rebalance market psychology and shake off the weak. Brothers here, learn to be strong. The plan below will help you with that.
This plan will have 2 parts for 2 different groups of people
🔸 A/ What do people who have goods from July to October 2023 do?
Lying quietly. There is no rush to finalize anything. The only thing that needs to be optimized is leverage. Without leverage, the psychology at this stage will be much lighter.
Those who still have money should continue reading below.
🔸 B/ Newbie, don't have many current products, what to do?
🔹 1/ For people with capital over 10k$
Quit futu to avoid becoming a small capital =))))
Allocate 40-50% to large and long-term assets. $ETH $BTC. You can start buying now, but stock up with a long-term mindset and be ready to buy even if the market continues to adjust another 10-20%.
Allocate 30% of capital to the association's medium/long-term bets. For example: $APT $IOTX $ACH... This type of bet is best if you look at the chart, you should look at the daily frame or higher.
Allocate 20-30% of capital to the association's short-term bets. Short-term bets are usually lowcap - shitcoin. This part of the money is quite flexible, so besides that, anyone who has time to do airdrop can do more.
🔹 2/ For those with capital under 10k$
Quit futu to avoid becoming empty-handed =))))
Allocate 60-70% to medium/long-term bets. 30-40% for short-term bets.
Work part-time outside, accumulate more airdrop money. Plow the airdrop instead of adding more money to trade.
Motto: I WILL NOT SELL ANYTHING UNTIL TRADFI MAKES LIQUIDITY FOR ME TO SELL. IN BULL RUN DIP FOR BUYING
