Jerome Powell and His Hour of Glory

Briefly:

▪️ Inflation is too high and we will work to get it back to 2%.

▪️ The banking system is more stable than ever.

▪️ The national debt ceiling problem hasn't been solved yet

▪️ Maybe the rate doesn't need to be raised as high as previously planned because it would hit banks and markets.

▪️ Perhaps a further reduction in demand will not come from a rate hike, but from changes in the labor market (rising unemployment).

Bottom line: shaved both ways, but the likelihood of another Fed rate hike has dropped from 45% to 15%