ETHFI Valuation Analysis
Method 1: Using YT’s transaction cost estimates
First, we make a rough rounding of the deposit period and average TVL: based on the scored TVL of 400,000 ETH * 120-day scoring period, ETHFI on Pendle is calculated at an annualized rate of 40%.
If Pendle is priced appropriately, the opportunity cost of acquiring YT = 400,000 120/360 40% ≈ $213 million.
Based on the 6% airdrop, the reasonable market value = 1.94 billion US dollars, or about $3.55 per coin.
Considering that ETHFI is the first one in the LRD family to be listed on BN, and before the official launch, the price of ether.fi's YT on Pendle was higher than other YTs, there is reason to believe that it was a smart decision to buy YT at that time. It also has many other features (such as the first one to be listed on a major exchange and a good project background).
Considering the market, FOMO sentiment and the new coin effect, and the fact that YT Buyer cannot just get back his investment, 3.5 would be a conservative estimate.
Note: EL points are not taken into account. EL points and risk premium are temporarily hedged.
Method 2: Calculate based on the required yield of BNB and fdUSD mining
@BTW0205 The boss gave a detailed calculation and a reasonable valuation of 4.5-7U, but: (1) The quota allocated to Launchpool is 2%, and the other parts have a larger share. In addition, the number of accounts participating in the point mining is as high as 75,266, and the chips are relatively dispersed. (2) The price of BNB has risen significantly, the frequency of new issuance has increased, and the base for calculating the market value will also change.
Therefore, my estimate would be a little more cautious, and the upper limit of reasonable valuation would be 6U.
Method 3: Comparative Analysis
Lido currently has a TVL of $38.4 billion and a market value of $2.6 billion, with a TVL-to-market value ratio of approximately 14.7x. Ether.fi has a TVL of approximately $3.2 billion, with a corresponding circulating market value of $217 million, which is approximately $1.88 based on the initial circulation volume of $115.2 million.
But considering that TVL and market value do not grow at a uniform rate, $1.88 is also an undervalued price. $3.55 is 88% higher than $1.88, which is within a reasonable range.
