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Is Bitcoin Due for a Correction With 5 Weeks Till the Halving?
Bitcoin (BTC) could be gearing up for a pre-halving correction, according to historical chart patters despite Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of around $73,700 on March 13.
Is a pre-halving Bitcoin correction imminent?
There are increasing signs of overheating and that Bitcoin price could experience a significant drop before the halving in April. This would fall in line with the 20% pre-halving correction in 2020, and the 38% retracement before the 2016 halving, says pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital.
The analyst anticipates the possibility of retrace that can last up to 77 days, thought the drawdown might be smaller than previous cycles. Specifically:
"This year, Bitcoin has experienced a -18% pullback in January and a -14% early March. Therefore it's possible that a pre-halving retrace, should one occur, would more likely be on the shallower side than on the deeper side."
BTC/USD, 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital, X BTC price underperforming previous halvings
But what if history doesn't repeat this time? For instance, the current cycle already differs because BTC price set a new record high for the first time before the halving even took place.
Secondly, Bitcoin is yet to catch up to its growth trajectory from previous halving cycles, according to historical data shared by Ecoinometrics, in a March 12 X post:
"If Bitcoin had followed a growth trajectory similar to the past two cycles we would expect one BTC to be worth anywhere between $100,000 to $300,000 per coin."
Bitcoin Halving Chart. Source: Ecoinmetrics, X
Therefore, current price action still has room to run, particularly as the previous all-time high price can now act as the launchpad for more upside before the halving.
Related: Bitcoin at $71K, same as $20K last cycle — BTC price analysis
According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has successfully retested the old all-time high of $69,200, which now acts as the new support line, he wrote in a March 12 X post.
Bitcoin price to $150K after halving: Bernstein
Looking ahead, wealth management firm Bernstein expects Bitcoin to break out to around $150,000, following the halving and by mid-2025, according to a note to clients on Monday. Bernstein's analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra now expect BTC price to "break out" after the halving.
The elevated demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has made them "more convinced" about their price target, which they first published last year.
"We estimated $10Bn inflows for 2024 and another $60Bn for 2025. In the last 40 trading days since ETF launch on Jan 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have crossed $9.5Bn already."
"At this run rate, Bitcoin ETFs would surpass our 2025 inflow estimates within 166 trading days for [the] rest of 2024," the analysts added.
Related: Grayscale files for ‘mini’ spot Bitcoin ETF
Bernstein also advised clients to invest in Bitcoin miners, as the recent underperformance "is probably the last window before halving."
Bernstein’s price target is modest, however, compared to the expectations of Cathie Wood’s Ark invest, which has a “brought forward” its long-term Bitcoin price target of over $1 million.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Is a pre-halving Bitcoin correction imminent?
There are increasing signs of overheating and that Bitcoin price could experience a significant drop before the halving in April. This would fall in line with the 20% pre-halving correction in 2020, and the 38% retracement before the 2016 halving, says pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital.
The analyst anticipates the possibility of retrace that can last up to 77 days, thought the drawdown might be smaller than previous cycles. Specifically:
"This year, Bitcoin has experienced a -18% pullback in January and a -14% early March. Therefore it's possible that a pre-halving retrace, should one occur, would more likely be on the shallower side than on the deeper side."
BTC/USD, 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital, X BTC price underperforming previous halvings
But what if history doesn't repeat this time? For instance, the current cycle already differs because BTC price set a new record high for the first time before the halving even took place.
Secondly, Bitcoin is yet to catch up to its growth trajectory from previous halving cycles, according to historical data shared by Ecoinometrics, in a March 12 X post:
"If Bitcoin had followed a growth trajectory similar to the past two cycles we would expect one BTC to be worth anywhere between $100,000 to $300,000 per coin."
Bitcoin Halving Chart. Source: Ecoinmetrics, X
Therefore, current price action still has room to run, particularly as the previous all-time high price can now act as the launchpad for more upside before the halving.
Related: Bitcoin at $71K, same as $20K last cycle — BTC price analysis
According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has successfully retested the old all-time high of $69,200, which now acts as the new support line, he wrote in a March 12 X post.
Bitcoin price to $150K after halving: Bernstein
Looking ahead, wealth management firm Bernstein expects Bitcoin to break out to around $150,000, following the halving and by mid-2025, according to a note to clients on Monday. Bernstein's analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra now expect BTC price to "break out" after the halving.
The elevated demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has made them "more convinced" about their price target, which they first published last year.
"We estimated $10Bn inflows for 2024 and another $60Bn for 2025. In the last 40 trading days since ETF launch on Jan 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have crossed $9.5Bn already."
"At this run rate, Bitcoin ETFs would surpass our 2025 inflow estimates within 166 trading days for [the] rest of 2024," the analysts added.
Related: Grayscale files for ‘mini’ spot Bitcoin ETF
Bernstein also advised clients to invest in Bitcoin miners, as the recent underperformance "is probably the last window before halving."
Bernstein’s price target is modest, however, compared to the expectations of Cathie Wood’s Ark invest, which has a “brought forward” its long-term Bitcoin price target of over $1 million.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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