I just came back from a party 10 minutes ago, and I can’t wait to write this article to share my experiences with you. It’s 3,600 words, which is a bit long, but it’s very informative, so please read it carefully.

There are three people at the party tonight. One is a former Huawei colleague from Zhejiang, who works in a chip-related department and happened to be on a business trip to Chengdu these two days. The other is also a former Huawei colleague, but has now left Huawei and settled in Shanghai.

You may remember that I wrote an article in 2018 about a 43-year-old chip company executive who was laid off. The person who told me this layoff story was the Shanghai guy. During this period, the Shanghai guy had been arranged by the company to work in Sichuan and Chongqing. He heard that the Zhejiang guy was on a business trip in Chengdu, so he rushed over from Chongqing to attend this dinner.

Back then, the three of us worked on projects together overseas, lived and ate together, and formed a deep friendship. When I left Huawei, I said goodbye to the communications industry; the Zhejiang native has worked at Huawei for more than 10 years and now has one year left before retirement (Huawei allows retirement at the age of 45); Shanghai has changed jobs twice after leaving Huawei, but has always been in the chip industry. We sat down and exchanged a few words, and talked about the industry and work.

People from Zhejiang said that they have been busy recently. What are they busy with? Because Huawei's Mate60 series was officially released some time ago. Once shipments start, the version iteration will be accelerated. Basically, it will be iterated once every six months. As the volume of shipments increases, there are many things to do, so he has been working overtime a lot recently and running around the country.

A few years before the company was subject to extreme sanctions from the United States, especially from 2020 to 2021, he basically went off work on time every day and was very, very idle, which was unprecedentedly idle in the more than 10 years since he joined Huawei.

I asked him whether he should be idle or busy. The Zhejiang native said with the shyness of Huawei straight men that it is better to be busy, after all, you have to get more money. Speaking of the Huawei Mate60 series, it was released half a year ago when the US Secretary of Commerce came to China. At that time, the Internet was boiling with praises for Huawei's face output, and it actually broke through the sanctions of the United States and continued to produce high-end models.

But everyone is also wondering who made this 7-nanometer chip, and how it can be delivered in batches for commercial use. Is it TSMC? Shanghai said, the news I learned is: This 7-nanometer chip comes from XXXX, which is headquartered in Shanghai. Although it can be produced, the yield rate is very low. It only solves the problem of creating something from scratch. It cannot compete in the market at all.

However, US sanctions have prevented chip giants such as TSMC and Samsung from getting involved in mainland China, while the huge domestic demand for high-end mobile phones still exists, which has given domestic chip companies huge opportunities. Therefore, market demand has brought massive orders to the upstream supply chain through Huawei's Mate60.

To put it bluntly, the Chinese people are willing to spend more money to buy domestic high-end mobile phones, which supports the entire domestic mobile phone supply chain represented by Huawei to survive and survive well, and step by step approach the world's most advanced technology. I asked the Zhejiang people, is this true? The Zhejiang people nodded and said "I think so", vaguely.

I couldn't ask him which division he was in charge of at Huawei, or he might accidentally tell me some commercial secrets, so I left the topic at that. Now let's talk about Shanghai.

Shanghai said that they had a hard time last year because the sales of the entire industry were declining. Work was already a headache, but the biggest headache for him was his son who was in the second year of junior high school. His son used to study very hard, but the education system in Shanghai was too competitive. No matter how hard he tried, he could not catch up. Gradually, the child could not find a sense of achievement in his studies and gradually began to hate studying.

Moreover, the information that children nowadays receive is too extensive. I don’t know where his son heard it from, but graduates from prestigious universities cannot find jobs, and that masters and doctoral students are admitted with salary cuts. So the child suddenly "figured it out."

One night, he was working overtime at home, typing away on the keyboard. His son was doing his homework in the next room. Suddenly, the child pushed the door open and said, "Dad, I don't want to study anymore." He asked why. The child said, "You graduated from a prestigious university, and you are a graduate student. Now you are this age, don't you work overtime every day until so late? If I can't get into a good university, I will only live a worse life than you."

He was shocked by his son's words. He thought, if I didn't have a master's degree from a prestigious university and earn a million dollars a year, I couldn't buy you a high-priced school district house in Shanghai. But he thought about the price of the house at that time, and looked at the high housing prices in Shanghai, even after the recent decline. He felt that his son was right. If he had just graduated from graduate school, he would probably have to rely on his parents at home.

The father figured it out and asked his son, what are you going to do? The child said, why don't I go deliver food? After discussing with his wife, Shanghai said, well, studying is like this anyway, if you want to experience life, then go ahead, but you still have to go to school and study. The child was very happy, so every day after school, his father helped him to complete the operation on the mobile phone (adult registration and login is required), and the child rode a bicycle to deliver food. He said that he was busy until almost 11 o'clock in the evening, and could deliver about 10 orders every day, and the money he earned was directly used as pocket money.

Since then, the parent-child relationship has improved by leaps and bounds, and the family is happy and harmonious. Shanghai said as he opened his phone to show us the order-taking APP.

The Zhejiang guy and I looked at each other in astonishment, our worldviews were shattered... The Zhejiang guy asked, "You can't let him keep delivering food, can you?" The Shanghai guy said, "He's only 14 now, maybe when he's older, he can learn a skill or a technique, so he can support himself or something, otherwise what else can he do?" The Zhejiang guy sighed and said, "Alas, kids nowadays are really too competitive. Do you know what academic qualifications Huawei is hiring now? They are all from Peking University, Tsinghua University, 985 and 211, or they are from overseas studies, many of them from Ivy League schools. Now even a normal 985 has to be very competitive to get into Huawei." My wife works in an advertising company, and she said that young employees nowadays are really different. The girl born after 1995 in their company, when it's time to get off work, she won't stay for even a second longer, and will leave without hesitation. If the company wants to organize team building, it's fine, but don't arrange it on weekends to take up my rest time. She also told the boss that the company should pay more money instead of organizing team building. Before the Zhejiang man finished speaking, the Shanghainese took over the topic and said, "I allowed my son to deliver food and didn't force him to study. Actually, there is another reason." We asked what it was.

He said, "You have used ChatGPT, right? I and people in Zhejiang said we have used it." People in Shanghai said, "My son will definitely not be able to get into a good university with his current academic performance. Twenty years ago, if he graduated from an ordinary school, he could still find a job, but now ChatGPT is replacing the future jobs of children from ordinary schools, isn't it?"

Think about it, how many people will be laid off if this thing becomes popular? And Sora, who just came out, is too scary. Unless you have the best academic qualifications, your future is still uncertain.

If that's the case, why should I send him into the fire pit? Who knows what the world will be like in 10 years? If he doesn't want to learn, forget it. Anyway, my wife and I have figured it out. People in Zhejiang say, "Oh, don't think you can sit back and relax if you have a technical job. Look at me, I work on chips, which is considered technical. I have finally made it to this point and I will retire in one year. But Huawei is preparing to change its policy recently, saying that it will postpone the retirement age to 50."

Oh my god, I have to work for another 6 years, how can I do that? There are also rumors that if the company does not renew the contract next time, the internal stocks I bought before will not be able to be retained, and the dividends will also be gone.

From the outside, Huawei is full of halos, but from the inside, it is full of restrictions. Life is not easy. I said, brother, you should be content. Even if you leave Huawei one day, you can go anywhere with the halo. The Zhejiang people showed a contemptuous smile and said that you left too early and your position is not high enough. You don’t know that Huawei’s non-compete agreement is notoriously strict in the industry.

Shanghai also laughed. I know, I know. I knew when I left that an individual cannot beat a company. You should just stay at Huawei. Why are you struggling? Haha. Zhejiang people said, "Hey, you don't know. I'm not only worried about work recently, but also about my relatives in my hometown borrowing money. That's the cousin who does purchasing on behalf of others. I told you about it, remember? He's been ripped off recently."

Shanghai and I both said we knew. His cousin graduated from a junior college and made some money by doing purchasing on behalf of a small boss a few years ago. He was very popular in his hometown. Even his cousin who worked in a big company didn't have as much face as him. As a result, he was recently involved in a local cash loan. To put it bluntly, it provides funds to the lender, and then the dealer takes the money to lend out, and he has a stable return of more than 10 points a year. If nothing else, at least there is no problem in "outperforming inflation".

Unexpectedly, the economy was so bad that the loans they had issued began to go bad on a large scale and could not be recovered. The bankers absconded with the money, leaving a bunch of investors stranded.

His cousin lost all the money he had earned before, and now he has no choice but to borrow money from his brother. The Zhejiang man said, I don’t have much money, but how can I refuse, everyone knows that I work at Huawei. This time I laughed: When I meet such relatives who make quick money, I never try to take advantage of them, but I will borrow money from him in advance. The purpose is not to borrow money but to let him know that I have no money, so don’t ask me to borrow money in the future, hahahaha.

The meeting is recorded here. I will talk about my feelings below. They may not be correct, please read them critically.

1. Whether it is the extreme sanctions suffered by Huawei or the education anxiety of the middle class, to put it bluntly, there is no incremental growth, and the internal circulation between countries and people is intensifying. It is hard to say when the internal circulation will end, but it will only be more cruel in the next few years. The rapid development of the fire and oil is over. Next, it is a "non-high-speed growth" period that most of us, including myself, have not experienced. Ordinary people just need to survive, cash is king, and the three-piece set of middle-class self-destruction, such as millions of mortgages, family members not working, and second children going to international schools, should be avoided as far as possible.

2. Be vigilant about all investment products. Keep cash in your card and let it depreciate. As long as you admit that you are still an ordinary person, you must accept the fate of wealth depreciation. Only a very small number of people's money can outperform inflation, but you are unlikely to be one of the very few. People in the circle are talking about how to harvest the middle class? How to harvest the demolition households who received huge compensation? Gently and considerately remind him that "outperforming inflation" is the fastest sickle.

3. Small town youths are admitted to prestigious universities, work in large companies for high salaries, buy houses and start families, stay in big cities and become standard middle class. Such stories are the product of a specific era and will become less and less in the future. Parents must restrain their delusions, especially highly educated parents, and realize that their high education is accidental, and it is highly likely that their children are ordinary people or even poor students. The middle class does not control the means of production, and no matter how high or awesome the position is, it cannot be inherited, so the children of the middle class can only rely on path dependence and walk the path of their parents' academic qualifications again. Unfortunately, except for a very small number of children who are indeed suitable for exam-oriented education, most of the others will have no future.

4. The intensification of the internal circulation of exam-oriented education and the intensification of the depreciation of academic qualifications in society have become a vicious cycle of mutual cause and effect. From the perspective of the balance sheet of life, whether your children will be your assets or liabilities in the future depends strongly on your parent-child relationship. I do not recommend that junior high school students deliver takeout to experience life. However, I do not recommend that if the parent-child relationship is not in place, and a child who is not suitable for exam-oriented education is forced to walk a single-plank bridge, I can only say that since the old way is not feasible, it is better to respect the child's opinions and let him play to his personality and advantages, and maybe he will find a new way. Finally, everyone should be clear about one thing: the college entrance examination is not a training mechanism, but a screening mechanism. That is why it is said that one general's success is the result of the sacrifice of thousands of bones. As a parent, you must figure out whether your child will be the one general or the one with thousands of bones. #热门话题 #中产 #变现 #阶层