【Blockchain Briefing 0312】
1. Market trend:
1. Short-term support level 70724
2. Short-term pressure level 73568, 74368
3. Medium-term support level 67054
4. Stablecoin supply and exchange data show that BTC selling pressure has increased, ETH selling pressure has declined, and stablecoin supply has been temporarily stable. Yesterday’s rise in the market consumed a lot of bullish momentum, so there must be a temporary pause.
5. Options data shows that the market's upward trend has not yet been completed, and the final impact will be completed before the 15th.
6. The open interest of the BTC ETH contract is consolidating at a high level, and there is currently no obvious sign of weakening. The market is still in a temporary adjustment state, and the upward trend has not yet been released. Based on the fact that the open interest has reached a record high, after this round of upward trend is over, it will soon It is possible that a major correction may be necessary to correct the trend.
2. Macroeconomic data:
1. U.S. dollar index: closed up 0.108% at 102.85
2. Treasury bond prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closed at 4.0982%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy interest rate, closed at 4.5381%
3. Gold price: closed up 0.16% at $2,182.72 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: closed up 0.36% at $78.21 per barrel
5. Stock market: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.12%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.41%.
6. USDCNY：7.17
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Observer, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 5.25-5.50 in March is 98%, and the probability of cutting interest rates to 5.00-5.25 is 2%.
8. Cryptocurrency: The overall market value increased by 4.4% to $2.73T, the 24-hour trading volume increased by 63.13% to $171.68B, and the market value of stable coins increased by 2.8% to 144.15B.
9. ETH pledge situation: The current pledge amount is 31.38METH, and the pledge rate is 26.1%
3. Position data of 9 ETFs:
Updated March 11:#Grayscaleis down 5,548 $BTC (-$401.83M) and currently holds 400,165 $BTC ($29.38B).#Blackrockadded 4,853 $BTC (+$351.51M) and currently holds 195,985 $BTC ($13.84B).
9 ETFs (including#Grayscale) added $2,140 $BTC (+$155 million).
4. Yesterday’s macro news:
1. Nick Timiraos, "Fed Speaker", wrote that Biden expressed optimism at a campaign event last week, saying that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. But its economic forecasts in Monday's budget delivered a different message: Interest rates won't be falling anytime soon, and markets need to rein in themselves.
2. The Biden administration’s 2025 budget is US$7.3 trillion. The US debt is expected to reach US$45 trillion in the next ten years. The US real GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.8% in 2025, 2.0% in 2028, and 2.2% in 2034; The Republican leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives expressed its rejection of Biden's budget proposal.
3. The Federal Reserve’s rescue tool BTFP has withdrawn from the stage, and the discount window has returned to the spotlight. The Fed hastily launched the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) a year ago amid heavy stress from the collapse of Silicon Valley banks, and the facility expired on Monday.
4. Japan’s revised GDP annual rate in the fourth quarter “turned positive”, which intensified rumors of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Japan’s Topix Index and Nikkei 225 Index once fell by 3% during the session.
5. ECB Governing Council member Kazmir: The ECB should wait until June before cutting interest rates for the first time. It is neither wise nor beneficial to rush into action.
6. MicroStrategy purchased 12,000 Bitcoins for US$821.7 million in cash; as of March 10, 2024, it held approximately 205,000 Bitcoins.
