4 stages of splitting Bitcoin
1. Escalation before division
There are about 42 days left until the Bitcoin split in April 2024
About 60 days before division, pre-division escalation usually occurs (light blue)
History repeated in this regard
Right now, Bitcoin is almost in the middle of the escalation phase before the split
In anticipation of a split, investors are "buying the hype" in an attempt to "sell the news."
Short-term traders and speculators “buy the hype” a few weeks before the split in anticipation of making a profit from this hype-fueled escalation.
These speculators then “sell the news” to realize those profits, contributing to the pre-split decline that occurs a few weeks before the split itself occurs.
2. Final decline before partitioning
After the escalation ended, before the division...
Pre-division decline usually occurs a few weeks before division itself occurs (dark blue circle)
In 2016, this pre-partition decline was -38%.
In 2020, this pre-partition decline was -20%.
This pre-division decline can last for several weeks and up to 77 days
3. Reaccumulation after partition
The pre-splitting decline is followed by a multi-month reaccumulation period (red)
This period can last up to 150 days (i.e. 5 months)
Many investors make the decision to exit at this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment at not achieving significant results
