Crypto investors are delighted over Bitcoin’s immense gains this year, rising 50% less than two months after the approval of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs in January.
Yet those gains may also be a source of uncertainty – especially for traders. Until this week, Bitcoin had never broken the highs of a prior bull market top until several months after its one-in-four-year “halving” event.
Now that it’s done so ahead of schedule, could the asset’s long-standing four-year market cycle be thrown completely out of whack?
“So far, it seems that the four-year cycle remains intact,” Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, told Decrypt. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s price still moved in line with the cycle when it tapped its low of $15,500 in November 2022.
The on-chain analytics platform relies on Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio as an effective metric for gauging Bitcoin bull and bear markets. The ratio compares Bitcoin’s market cap to “realized cap”—the sum value of all coins at the time they were last sold.
The higher the ratio, the more profit Bitcoin investors are sitting on, and the more incentive they have to start selling their coins—possibly marking a bull market peak.
“MVRV ratio still hasn't passed the 3.7 thresholds that would indicate a cycle top,” said CryptoQuant.
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