Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi published his “power law” model for predicting the price of Bitcoin (BTC), which predicted $10 million per individual BTC by 2045.

A power law is a mathematical relationship in which one value is proportional to a fixed power of another value. The power law is observed in many natural phenomena, from the frequency of earthquakes to the dynamics of changes in the stock market.

Santostasi first shared the power law model on the r/Bitcoin subreddit in 2018. However, in January this year, she became popular again after financial YouTuber Andrey Jeich mentioned her in a video for his 2.3 million subscribers.

Santostasi said the model predicts Bitcoin could peak at $210,000 in January 2026 and then fall to $60,000.

In a March 2 conversation with mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, Santostasi said the power-law model depicts a more understandable and predictable pattern of Bitcoin price behavior over long periods of time.

Santostasi said that, unlike the now widely criticized stock-to-flow model, the power law is logarithmic, not exponential.

This means that the price of Bitcoin should not continually rise over time, and the model can still account for the significant price fluctuations seen most recently between 2020 and 2023.

In a follow-up post on X on March 3, Krueger laid out further mathematical power law modeling as applied to Bitcoin, which predicted that Bitcoin would reach a price of $100,000 within the next two years.

Kruger's power law simulation predicts that by 2045 the price of Bitcoin will be $10 million. Source: X

Krueger added that if Bitcoin follows the power-law model, its market capitalization will exceed gold's market capitalization by 2033, at which point Bitcoin will be worth $1 million per token.

Despite Santostasi and Krueger's belief in the power-law model, critics say any mathematical model can be subject to significant errors and does not account for random events that can have a major impact on the price.