$BTC Are we witnessing a break of the 4-Year Cycles?
There's considerable debate regarding Bitcoin's 4-year cycle and its outcomes. This brief delves into the technical aspects of these cycles, emphasizing the importance of understanding the patterns for different probablistic outcomes.
4-Year Cycle Pattern:
Bitcoin has consistently exhibited a 4-year cycle pattern since its inception, characterized by precise intervals between its peaks and troughs:
2013 peak to 2017 peak = 1477 days
2015 trough to 2018 trough = 1428 days
2017 peak to 2021 peak = 1435 days
2018 trough to 2022 trough = 1428 days
On average, significant points in Bitcoin's cycle occur roughly every ~1400 days. Projecting this pattern suggests the next peak in Q4 2025 and the following trough in Q4 2026. However, emerging trends indicate a deviation from this projection.
Halving as a Bullish Catalyst:
Bitcoin's halving events historically trigger a parabolic phase, though their impact is diminishing due to the high percentage (>90%) of Bitcoin already in circulation. Notably, Bitcoin has breached the 0.618 Fibonacci level in the current cycle, a departure from past patterns.
Left-Translated Cycle Dynamics:
A left-translated cycle indicates a peak occurring before the cycle's midpoint, suggesting a shorter cycle if the ATH is surpassed before October/November 2024. Despite rising global liquidity, a prolonged bull market extending to late 2025 is deemed unlikely, given institutional investors' profit-taking strategies.
Conclusion:
Market patterns, once recognized, tend to be preempted by traders. Current indicators suggest a left-translated cycle, urging an adaptation to market dynamics. High Time Frame (HTF) analyses remain bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins. The recommended strategy is straightforward: buy spot, ride the trend, prepare for dips, avoid leverage without expertise, and exercise patience.
