Bitcoin price increase after halving is not guaranteed to happen
Think about it for a moment. If the price increase before and after the halving is certain, everyone in the market will buy in advance. No one is stupid. Whether it is 1 yuan or 100 million, everyone will go all in.
This is because the scarcity brought about by Bitcoin halving is not only predictable, but also a fact that everyone knows in advance.
However, if we look at LTC, which also has a halving mechanism, it will also cause miners to sell, and LTC will also become more scarce, but we have not seen a sustained price increase after the halving. This shows that although scarcity sometimes affects prices, other factors are more important.
The halving itself will not bring about any increase, but rather it is the consensus caused by the stimulation of major macroeconomic events occurring at the same time.
In 2012, the European debt crisis caused its price to rise from $12 to $1,100 in November 2013.
The ICO boom in 2016 pumped more than $5.6 billion into altcoins, driving their prices from $650 to $20,000 by December 2017.
The 2020 coronavirus pandemic and massive stimulus measures exacerbated inflation, and Bitcoin, as a safe-haven tool, saw its price rise from $8,600 to $68,000 in November 2021.
Bitcoin, as an alternative investment option, attracted a large amount of incremental funds to enter the market, which coincidentally occurred around the halving.
So if we look at it from a superficial perspective, generally, prices start to rise 8 weeks before the halving, adjust back during the halving, and then resume rising 8 weeks after the halving.
At this stage, economic data are very stable, and no black swan has appeared. The Federal Reserve is not only not considering lowering interest rates, but is even considering resuming interest rate hikes.
Especially since Bitcoin has broken through 52,000, holding on to the currency before the halving is the best option, and mindless all-in bets should be careful….
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