[CICC: The 10-year U.S. Treasury nominal interest rate may trend upward to 4.5% in the next few years]

A CICC research report stated that optimistic expectations of monetary policy are the main driver of the recent decline in U.S. debt, and the impact of fiscal debt issuance pressure has not been effectively alleviated. From the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, net bond issuance will remain high, and U.S. bond interest rates may fluctuate between 4.3% and 4.7%. After the second quarter of next year, as the pressure for bond issuance eases, economic growth will become the dominant factor in U.S. debt. Under the baseline scenario, it is judged that the U.S. economy will slow down in 2024, and driven by real interest rates, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate may trend down to 3.8%. In the long term, the basic judgment that the U.S. bond interest rate center is still higher than before the epidemic is still maintained. Against the background of rising natural interest rates and inflation centers, the 10-year U.S. bond nominal interest rate center may trend upward to 4.5% in the next few years. #BTC #SEC #Fed #hodl