Passion and motivation, which are directly linked, are necessary, but inevitably, they wane. Discipline remains.
How many times have we questioned ourselves? Where would I be today had I not quit that specific activity?
This is just a reminder for my future self that I should never quit and continue pursuing my objectives with zeal and tenacity.
As I said in the previous post, I have embarked on an exciting journey and anyone is invited to join me. The journey is one of learning; I am starting from the ground-level, with little to no experience. I want to see how far-fetched is the idea of becoming a profitable trader, and not only. I want to know the ins and out of crypto, so anyone more experienced is welcome to correct me if the concepts I am learning are wrong.
The e-book I am currently reading started off by explaining the cycles & phases of a market. Prolific traders well before our times observed and attempted to decipher the market progression. Three traders stood out from the crowd; more precisely, Charles Dow, Ralph Elliot, and Richard Wyckoff.
They definitely paved the way for modern technical analysis, but do their principles apply to the cryptocurrency markets? I think they do because they all approached their analysis from a psychological perspective of supply and demand.
Dow Theory suggests that major market trends are composed of three phases:
accumulation phase;
trending phase;
distribution phase;
The accumulation phase is like a sneakier period when smart investors are quietly buying or selling digital coins, even if it goes against what most people think. During this time, crypto prices don't move much because these sharp investors are either soaking up or letting go of coins that the market is offering or demanding. Eventually, the rest of the market catches on to what these savvy investors are up to, and boom, we hit phase 2 with sudden price swings, starting a trend. This trend keeps going until everyone starts going crazy with speculation. Then, the smart investors start selling off their crypto stash to the market.
The above assertion clearly illustrates the psychological perspective of each phase. While these models might have their utility, they lack a quantifiable approach to understanding market phases. If I were to open a chart and start trading, would it truly be helpful to subjectively label emotions in an attempt to explain price movements? When would I determine that price shifted psychologically from pessimism to panic?
It seems more practical to stick to the three phases outlined in Dow Theory. The simplest explanation is usually the better one. The key takeaway here is that markets evolve through three distinct phases or cycles, which together form and complete market trends.
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