Recently, I have read some random notes about macroeconomics from last year, which help me think systematically. I have written about the view that interest rate hikes can kill inflation and interest rate cuts can kill valuations a long time ago. Now we are approaching the turning point of monetary policy. Apart from unforeseen events such as geopolitical events, whether there is a black swan sacrifice in the macroeconomics to welcome the arrival of the bull market may be an opportunity for operation within the big cycle.
As someone who invests in diversified risk assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies, I need to constantly remind myself to maintain continuous and systematic thinking. When everyone is immersed in currency selection, wealth codes, and interest rate halving, the black swan is also brewing. It may not come, but we should also have an idea in our minds.
In the inflation index just released, the core inflation that the Fed is most concerned about has reached below 3%, which is also the lowest value since this week, and it also indicates that there is no particularly hawkish basis for the Fed's interest rate meeting on February 1. The market is trading more aggressively in the expectation of interest rate cuts (first or second quarter). Although my BTC long position has a profit of 50% and the position is about 120,000 dollars, I will still keep it on February 1 for big operations.
What is coming next is that BPFD expires in March this year. It is the rescue plan for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which brings liquidity to the risk market, thus creating a certain basis for the risk market to rise. The Federal Reserve has said that it will not extend this rescue plan, and the sudden withdrawal of liquidity, coupled with the lag in interest rate cuts, will lead to a lack of market liquidity, which may become a black swan in the macro market, which is also easy to ignore when emotions are high.
Because I ignored these, and I suddenly remembered them when I was taking notes, so my thinking may not be comprehensive. It would be best if @Joylou1209 @Phyrex_Ni @lianyanshe and a few bosses who study macroeconomics can give me some advice.
At this time, there will be a great opportunity to build a position. So how to operate:
1. If a swan appears, I will buy the bottom of BTC at 19700 last year and invest 1 million yuan.
There is nothing to show off. I have posted the record of buying at the bottom of 1 million yuan. I will not go into details here. Just look at the reason.
2. If the swan does not appear, bpfd does not withdraw liquidity. When interest rate cuts are not possible, the only way to prevent it is to use the tool of balance sheet reduction. Then, trade with around 40,000 dollars as the oscillation center of the bull-bear cycle, confirm the trend, and large funds enter the right side.
This time point is probably from March to June.
