Preface
Where do we start? In a week where US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen asserted “the economy is performing very well” and FED Chair Jerome Powell declared "the banking system remains sound”, it certainly feels as though everything is not alright.
Remember who your leaders are. Or at least, the elites who perform experiments with your finances and livelihoods.
If things were so great, sovereign bond yields would not be undercutting the Fed’s rate expectations, gold and silver wouldn’t be mooning, and Bitcoin wouldn’t be in breakout mode. It’s fair to say that Bitcoin may finally be acting as the risk-off hedge it was always intended to be.
In a note of good news however, Texas Senator Ted Cruz introduced a bill to prevent the US Federal Reserve from adopting a Central Bank Digital Currency. He offered this stark warning:
“Not only would this CBDC model centralize Americans’ financial information, leaving it vulnerable to attack, but it could also be used as a direct surveillance tool into the private transactions of Americans.”
The government should never be able to assert more control over your own money than it already does. Full stop.
Economic Calendar
Highlights
CB Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
GDP Q4 Final Revision - Thursday
Core PCE + Personal Income & Spending - Friday
https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar
Breakdown
CB Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
Consumer Confidence captures the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn (Source).
The February reading came in at 102.9, and consensus is 101.0 for March. A sizeable beat could give the US dollar a boost, while a miss could cause it to slide further.
GDP Q4 Final Revision - Thursday
GDP is a gross measure of market activity and it indicates the pace at which the economy is growing or declining. This will be the third and final estimate for Q4, and it’s expected to hold at 2.7%.
In the event it is revised above 3%, that will likely boost the US dollar.
Core PCE + Personal Income & Spending - Friday
PCE is a lagging indicator, and this print will contain data for February. The expectation is for a MoM increase of 0.4% following January’s resurgence of 0.6%. The annual rate is projected to fall from 4.7% to 4.4%.
Personal income and spending are forecast to drop off from 0.6% to 0.3% and 1.8% to 0.3% respectively.
This is the main event for the week, and any uptick in the numbers will be met with scrutiny and potentially new hawkish verbiage from FOMC members. A decline, however, should be met with enthusiasm from market participants as a Fed pause at the May meeting becomes more likely.
Sponsors Corner
RoseonPass NFTs are now trading on OpenSea at a floor price of 0.09 ETH, or 50% premium to our mint cost. Following the successful launch, prices may increase as the team delivers with further utility cases and the upcoming airdrop!
The token migration also takes place on April 5, so current prices appear somewhat distorted. Following the migration date, I believe we’ll see considerable appreciation in $ROSX token price. That’s obvious speculation and not investing advice. However, the strength and enthusiasm of this team and community feels contagious! There are also a number of respected DeFi players involved. The future looks bright!
Chart of the Week
Bitcoin has broken out vs the S&P500 on the weekly chart, with a strong breaker candle through 1.28 resistance. This will need to be held on a subsequent pullback, but is looking very good so far. The market remains heavily BTC-focused.
Jay Charles
Editor in Chief, The Trading Tank.
Disclaimer: The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author.
The Trading Tank is a publisher of financial information and not an investment advisor. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY OR PUBLICLY TRADED ASSET DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
