Keys to this short week, with Black Friday kicking off the high shopping season in eToro analysis
At the confluence of economic events and the holidays, investors find themselves at a crucial point in the year. In the United States, the week will be short in terms of negotiation due to the celebration of Thanksgiving Day, a period that traditionally begins the high shopping season with “Black Monday” and “Cyber Monday.” This year, the market expects these dates to stand out for their resilience in consumer spending, which could be a positive sign for retailers and the economy in general.
On the other hand, the market's eyes will be on the publication of the minutes of the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this Tuesday. Discussions about financial conditions and how they influence monetary policy decisions are of key interest to investors, who are looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's next steps in a changing inflation environment.
Likewise, existing home sales are expected to show a decline in October, which would be the fifth consecutive month of decline, reflecting the pressure that rising interest rates have placed on the housing market. This data will be crucial in evaluating the overall health of the economy and the purchasing power of the American consumer.
Another indicator to watch will be the release of the final consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to long-term inflation expectations, which, if revised downwards, could signal a perception that the inflationary peak is behind us.
Finally, preliminary S&P Global PMI readings for November will be released on Friday. These will provide an up-to-date view on the health of the manufacturing and services sector, with a particular focus on the global slowdown and its impact on different regions, especially Europe.
As we approach the end of 2023 and look ahead to 2024, market strategists at eToro maintain a constructive view, anticipating that pressures on bond yields and oil prices could ease and sentiment could recover from levels still relatively low.
The technology sector in the USA could lead in the first half of the year, while, for the second half, a change is expected towards more cyclical sectors in Europe or Emerging Markets and in small capitalization values.
