After the U.S. stock market opened last night, Grayscale transferred 9,000 BTC to Coinbase, sparking heated discussions in the market.
Does it mean that Grayscale is about to dump its stocks at a discount?
Currently, Grayscale still holds more than 600,000 BTC. If there is a real market crash, what will the market face and will it be able to withstand it?
People who are familiar with Grayscale should know that these more than 600,000 BTC do not belong to Grayscale, but to the users.
The early fund GBTC had a high premium, and directly purchasing BTC and converting it into GBTC could earn the difference.
However, since GBTC cannot be redeemed, early investors can only sell GBTC in the secondary market to make a profit.
In a bear market, GBTC has a high negative premium. After buying GBTC and waiting until it can be redeemed, you can directly earn a profit difference of dozens of points.
With the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF this year, the original GBTC also has a redemption function.
Users who locked in early can get out, including users who bought at a negative premium this year can also realize profits.
Data shows that in the past three trading days, GBTC has seen a total outflow of approximately US$1.1 billion, but the entire ETF market is still seeing a net inflow.
From this perspective, it can be seen that the coins held by Grayscale are not randomly thrown, but come from users. If users want to redeem their funds, Grayscale will transfer BTC to users for payment.
Another important data is that GBTC currently has the highest transaction fee.
Because it has large-scale capital, it took the opportunity to carry out a round of harvest.
Therefore, many users prefer to choose ETFs issued by other institutions rather than GBTC.
As for whether the Bitcoin transferred by Grayscale to Coinbase was used to dump the market, we only need to verify it through price data.
1. Check whether Grayscale’s total AUM has decreased (calculated with the price unchanged)
2. Coinbase's BTC spot trading volume. Although the price fell rapidly after the opening yesterday, the short-term trading volume was only more than 800 BTC.
During the entire U.S. stock market opening period, Coinbase's trading volume was less than 8,000 BTC, which is not enough to cover the amount transferred in by Grayscale, so there is no need to worry too much.
Most of these ETF issuers hold custody with Coinbase, and the transfer to BTC may also be a preparation for the future.
We continue to pay attention to abnormal volume and price movements of Coinbase spot, and can basically determine whether institutions are selling, and then make a comprehensive consideration based on the reduction in their custody scale.
Finally, walking alone is lonely. The bull market is coming. Qiqi’s no-threshold small circle welcomes everyone to join. Let’s move forward hand in hand and embrace the uncertainty of the future with a certain group. #chz #灰度 $BTC $ETH
