LAST WEEK'S RECAP:
#BitcoinETFapproved SEC has approved all Bitcoin spot ETFs.
U.S. CPI increased 0.3% MoM in Dec and 3.4% YoY, higher than the estimated 0.2% and 3.2%.
USDC issuer Circle confidentially filed for US IPO, the second attempt to go public.
SEC’s Twitter account was hacked and posted a fake BTC ETF approval notice one day before the official approval.
ETH price increased after BTC ETF approval news, signalling ETH ETF narratives, which SEC needs to decide in May.
@NEAR Protocol Foundation cut staff by 40%.
Starkware CEO Uri Kolodny resigned due to family health issues.
LEGACY MARKETS – DXY
DXY is still within the larger range of 106-100. As mentioned, it's currently expected to continue building more price structures within this range.
LEGACY MARKETS – VIX
VIX still can’t keep any real strength other than the occasional spike. This gives stock and crypto room to move.
BTC WEEKLY VIEW
BTC saw a large spike into 48k. After large rejection and closing back within the macro range of 30-45k, it seems pretty likely that BTC could drop to the mid/low 30s.
However, with the ETFs now being live, the actual underlying market structure of BTC will also change. This makes it harder to predict what will happen price-wise as the “character” of how BTC trades changed and there’s not enough price history yet to define it.
One could look at large-cap tech stocks for what’s possible regarding retracement. But at best, that’s still a wild guess.
ETH WEEKLY VIEW
As mentioned last week, we expected an instant reversion in ETH/BTC after the BTC spot ETF approval. This was the case and because of the relative strength of ETH/BTC, it held its breakout level on ETH/USD.
If BTC can trade stable enough for just a few days, it’s quite likely for ETH to finish its rally into 2.8-3.3k area.
ETH/BTC
ETH/BTC retraced over 30 days of bleeding in 1 candle after the ETF approval. If this reversal is “real”, the ETH/BTC market should see trending behaviour from here on out till at least .067.
TOTAL3 – USD MARKET STRENGTH
TOTAL3 is flipping resistance into support. However harsh current altcoin correction may seem from a higher time frame perspective, it’s fairly healthy.
TOTAL3/BTC – BTC MARKET STRENGTH
As expected, ALT/BTC followed ETH/BTC. However, the ETH/BTC impulse was a lot stronger and ALT/BTC is still in range. If BTC slips hard to the downside, a breakout won't be likely just yet.
SUMMARY
BTC dropped almost 20% post-ETF approval, with GBTC selling being the main narrative for the drop.
ETH/BTC finally saw the large reversion, with Blackrock making comments about an ETH ETF making sense for later this year (likely late Q2-Q3).
DISCLAIMER:
The information in this report is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as investment or financial advice. All information contained herein is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any digital assets or other financial products.
