Can Market Momentum Continue into the Election Year?

Today, I’d like to revisit a key point from my November blog post—the market’s run to end the year—and then cap it off with some historical election year data.

Here, we will be explicitly looking at historical S&P 500 data since 1957 or at data prior to 1957. Before 1957, the index as we know it today was called the S&P 90. In 1957, it was updated to 500 names that better reflected the market. If you’d like to learn more about the evolution of the S&P Index, check out this Reuters article on key dates and milestones in the S&P 500’s history. 

S&P 500 and the 20 Percent Return

In my last post, I noted the quarterly returns and annual returns of the S&P 500, detailing how if the S&P 500 were able to close 2023 with a return greater than 20 percent, coupled with positive returns during Q1, Q2, and Q4, then it would paint a positive outlook for 2024. Well, following an 11.24 percent December for the S&P 500, the major stock index was able to finish the year over 20 percent.

There are three other instances (1975, 1985, and 1998) in S&P 500 history where the above returns occurred. In all three, the S&P 500 saw a double-digit return the following year. 

Performance in the Last 10 Weeks of 2023

Over the last 10 weeks of 2023, the equity markets were significantly positive. During the final week of 2023, the S&P 500 hit a high of 4,793.3, which was a 16.8 percent move off the October 27 correctional bottom. Since 1950, that marks the second-greatest 10-week run to end the year (second only to the run in 1998). Further, since 1957, it is only the 14th time the S&P 500 has gone on a double-digit run over the last 10 weeks of the year.

When looking at the prior 13 years in which we saw a double-digit run to end the year, we notice a trend that has been a consistent theme throughout my blogs: Price action is much less certain over the short term, but positive probabilities may increase as you look further out.