Should ETF approvals be granted this week, it's conceivable that in hindsight, the current valuation of Bitcoin at $43,000 might seem surprisingly low, especially if there's an assumption that the ETF factor has been fully accounted for in its price.
Presently, there's a strong consensus that ETF approvals are imminent, though a cautious sentiment prevails with many awaiting official confirmation. According to insiders, the SEC is anticipating the submission of final S-1 forms by Monday morning, aiming for a possible launch on January 11th. Additionally, Matthew Sigel from VanEck disclosed last Friday that Blackrock has secured $2 billion for their ETF launch, potentially making it one of the largest ETF launches ever.
If the ETFs are indeed set to launch in the same week as their approval, as indicated, then any notion of a 'sell the news' scenario might be overshadowed by the combined impact of the news and the launch. This could lead to sustained new investment from sectors outside of cryptocurrency, a notable shift from the transient investments that have been typical in this domain.
Furthermore, entities like Saylor have recently taken over a billion dollars' worth of BTC out of active circulation, with the next Bitcoin halving just three months away.
Despite all these factors, BTC's price remains almost 50% below its inflation-adjusted all-time highs, just before potentially one of the most positive developments in its history. Therefore, I am skeptical about the likelihood of a 'sell the news' event if approvals are confirmed this week. The primary downside risk would be any unforeseen delays or rejections, which also implies that many might be under-invested should only positive news emerge.
These are merely my personal views. I remain optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects from the $43,000 mark, looking forward to possibly favorable developments next week, while remaining prepared for any unexpected outcomes. Best wishes.
