2023 Summary
To be honest, the year 2023 is still very far away from the year 23 I imagined. It is probably very far away from the imagination of most people.
I wrote an article at the end of last year. The central meaning is that there is a high probability that 23 years will be a monkey market, and there is only one monkey in the year who adheres to this idea.
Looking back at the end of the year, I realized that I was terribly wrong. Bitcoin has increased more than twice from 1.6 million to 4.2 million today. The high before the Nasdaq test is enough to prove that this past year was a calf.
This directly caused my operation to be abnormal, and I did not earn the money I saw. However, since I did not earn it, it also proved that my knowledge was not reached, and it was not money that I could earn.
To summarize my mistakes:
excessively pessimistic
Bitcoin is 15,000, and the entire market is clamoring to buy it below 10,000. I also prepared a sum of funds to buy at the bottom below 10,000. Naturally, I didn’t wait until I was reminded by a friend after 2.5 weeks.
However, the bottom that everyone sees is not the bottom, and the top that everyone sees is not the top. The reality will come sooner than you expect. The truth is very simple. If everyone is looking at the bottom of 10,000, people will naturally withdraw money to open a position. If everyone is looking at the top of 100,000, naturally some people will withdraw money and leave the market.
Pessimists can win for a while, and optimists can win for a whole year, a whole cycle, or even a lifetime. Buffett and Munger are examples.
Careful about everything
In the middle of the year, when chasing the big pie, I had to wait for less than 24,000. As a result, the position was not fully opened, and most of the profits were missed.
There is no perfect buying point, and the most perfect buying point is always ten years ago.
Place big bets
In fact, I am not very sure about this point. I still need to determine the timing, because stock investment has suffered losses at this point, so my position in the currency circle has never been heavy. I didn’t realize at the beginning of the year that this was going to be a calf. In June of this year, I shouted that the pie would be 40,000 yuan next month. It was early, but it arrived even though it was late. But I did not firm up my idea and open a heavy position in currency standard.
Finally, let me make a prediction for next year:
24 will be a good year. Some of us will have wealth and freedom, and some of us will achieve our small goals.
Amid expectations of interest rate cuts, there is no suspense about the high probability that Nasdaq will break through its previous high.
BTC will sprint to the high point of the last bull market, and it is conservatively estimated in the second half of the year.
I wish you all fortune!
