According to Jinshi Data, CITIC Securities pointed out that changes in macro, supply and demand, and trading factors have dominated the fluctuations in copper prices since 2024. Compared with the starting point of the previous copper price boom cycle in March, the potential impact of various factors on copper prices is more positive and clear.

First, with the slowdown in the supply of concentrate and scrap copper and the decline in long-term TC, it is expected that the slowdown in supply caused by the intensive maintenance at the smelting end in the fourth quarter will come late but soon.

Second, the high growth in demand in the energy transformation sector and the structural improvement in grid demand promoted the recovery of demand in the third quarter, and seasonal inventory replenishment during the peak consumption season is expected to further boost demand in the fourth quarter.

Third, the Federal Reserve has started a cycle of interest rate cuts. Historical data confirms that preventive interest rate cuts against the backdrop of the remaining resilience of the U.S. economy will help boost copper prices.

CITIC Securities is optimistic about the resonant driving effect of commodity attributes and financial attributes on copper prices, maintains its judgment that the copper price will operate in the range of US$9,000-10,000 per ton in the second half of 2024, and maintains its "outperform" rating for the copper sector.