● The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has dropped to 37%

According to BlockBeats, on September 5, after the release of the U.S. ADP employment data for August, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September dropped from 45% to 37%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut was 63%.

● Fed's mouthpiece: Non-farm payrolls will affect the extent of the Fed's rate cuts

According to BlockBeats, on September 6, "Federal Reserve Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos' latest article stated that the U.S. August employment report scheduled for release on Friday will play a greater role than usual in determining the extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this month.
At the Fed’s September meeting, the debate will center on whether to start cutting rates by 25 or 50 basis points to prevent an unwanted softening in the job market. The August hiring and employment reports will be key to that decision.

● Latest US unemployment data lower than expected

According to TechFlow, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending August 31 was 227,000, which was expected to be 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000. The number of continuing unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending August 24 was 1.838 million, which was expected to be 1.865 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.868 million to 1.86 million.

● The US dollar index and Treasury yields fell after the release of ADP employment data

According to BlockBeats, on September 5, after the release of the ADP employment data: the US dollar index DXY fell 10 points in the short term and is now at 101.03; the US dollar against the Japanese yen USD/JPY fell nearly 50 points in the short term and is now at 143.13; the US 10-year Treasury bond yield fell after the release of the ADP employment data and is currently at 3.747%; the US 2-year Treasury bond yield fell to 3.733%, the lowest level since May 2023; spot gold rose $4 in the short term and is now at $2516.78/ounce.

● The U.S. ADP added 99,000 jobs in August, the smallest increase since 2021

According to Wu, the United States announced that ADP added 99,000 jobs in August, the smallest increase since January 2021, with an expected increase of 145,000. The previous value was revised from 122,000 to 111,000. In addition, in August 2024, U.S. employers announced 75,891 layoffs, the most in five months and the most layoffs in a single month since 2009.

● Trump to set up government efficiency commission, Elon Musk to lead it

According to Odaily Planet Daily, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump said he would set up a government efficiency committee, and Elon Musk has agreed to lead the committee. Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign team, said Trump will work with Tesla CEO Elon Musk to explore ways to implement the mission of the government efficiency committee.