According to Cointelegraph: A recent analysis suggests that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) may not reach the lofty $30 trillion forecasted by some Wall Street predictions by 2030. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, argues that a more realistic figure is around $1.3 trillion, based on the current compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 121%.
Tokenization, which involves issuing blockchain-based security tokens that represent traditional assets like real estate, bonds, and stocks, has been gaining traction. However, Coutts believes that while growth will be significant, the $30 trillion estimate by institutions like Standard Chartered Bank and Synpulse may be overly optimistic.
Coutts noted that even a $1.3 trillion market would profoundly impact the Web3 ecosystem, potentially driving growth in sectors such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), social platforms, and gaming.
Regarding Ethereum's role, Coutts expressed concerns about the "Ethereum dilemma." He suggested that while Ethereum is the leading platform for tokenized assets, layer-2 networks could capture most of the revenue, leaving the base Ethereum network with only a fraction of the value.
Coutts' conservative estimate aligns more closely with McKinsey & Company's June report, which projected a $2 trillion market size for tokenized assets by 2030. Despite a "cold start," McKinsey analysts see potential, particularly in areas like tokenized bonds, where new issuances are frequently announced.
As the debate continues, the future of tokenized RWAs remains a hot topic, with varying predictions on how much of the traditional finance market will be brought on-chain.
