According to Jinshi Data, with the interest rate cut basically locked in, investors will pay more attention to economic data in the coming months to determine whether the economic "soft landing" trend that will drive the U.S. stock market to rise in 2024 can continue.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium were more dovish than expected, but did not completely allay the alarm. The S&P 500 has risen 18% so far this year, and stock valuations are high. The market needs to see continued evidence of resilient economic growth and cooling inflation.
Historical data shows that in non-recessionary periods, the S&P 500 index rose an average of 18% within a year after the first rate cut, while it rose only 2% during recessions. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said whether the rate cut is due to slowing inflation or a weak labor market will be a key factor in stock market performance.
