According to Jinshi.com, as a new round of global interest rate cuts approaches, gold prices once again hit a record high this week, breaking through the $2,500/ounce mark, and then fell back.
Huishang Futures believes that the Fed's rate cut path this year is still one of the important factors affecting gold prices. The market currently prices that the Fed will start a rate cut cycle in September, with a cumulative rate cut of 75BP to 100BP for the whole year. The expectation of rate cuts supports gold prices.
However, if the US inflation data rebounds beyond expectations or the employment data performs stronger than expected, the Fed's full-year interest rate cut may be less than market expectations, which may lead to a rebound in US Treasury yields, a further tightening of US financial conditions, and downward pressure on the economy.
The geopolitical situation is still highly uncertain, and it is expected that the possibility of both parties or multiple parties reaching an agreement in the short term is small, which will be bullish for gold.
