According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to the level of monthly nonfarm payrolls from April 2023 to March 2024 on Wednesday. This data is anticipated to reveal that job growth during this period was significantly weaker than initial estimates, as noted by crypto firm SignalPlus and Morgan Stanley.
SignalPlus, a tech firm focused on democratizing crypto options, stated in a market update that the Federal Reserve will receive revised job growth figures, which may indicate that job growth from last year through early this year was weaker than previously estimated. Morgan Stanley expects a substantial downward revision of payrolls by 600,000, implying a reduction of 50,000 jobs per month over the 12 months through March.
The anticipated downward revision to jobs data could reignite recession fears, leading to a shift away from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, and a move towards safer investments. However, Goldman Sachs cautions that the data might overstate the weakness. The investment bank's Economics Research team believes that while the revision could lower the pace of job growth to 165,000-200,000 per month, the true pace of employment growth was likely closer to 200,000-240,000 per month. This discrepancy is attributed to the data being based on the quarterly consensus of employment and wages (QECW), which relies on unemployment insurance records that exclude illegal immigrants, who have significantly contributed to job growth in recent years.
Following the release of the BLS data, attention will turn to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting, scheduled for release at 18:00 UTC. Morgan Stanley indicated that they will be looking for insights into why the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to wait until September to consider easing monetary policy and whether a 50 basis point rate cut was discussed.
