According to Cointelegraph: Bitcoin's price is on the verge of a potential breakout in September, with some analysts forecasting a surge to new all-time highs, possibly reaching $86,000. However, before this can happen, Bitcoin must first overcome significant resistance around the $59,500 level.
Historical Patterns Point to a September Breakout
According to popular analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin's price could be on track for a major breakout next month, drawing parallels with previous post-halving chart patterns. In an August 18 post on X (formerly Twitter), Rekt Capital told his 493,000 followers, "Bitcoin tends to breakout into the Parabolic Phase of the cycle some ~160 days after the Halving. If history repeats, Bitcoin could be just over a month away from breakout. That's late September."
Macroeconomic Factors Supportive of a Rally
The broader macroeconomic environment also appears favourable for Bitcoin. Jamie Coutts, a chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, pointed out that the global M2 money supply—an indicator of global liquidity—has been increasing, which could set the stage for Bitcoin's next big move. Coutts noted, "Over the past decade, Bitcoin has had a tendency to trough several months before the bottom in global M2. Then it rips, gets way ahead of the move in liquidity, and has a mid-cycle correction."
Coutts emphasized that the combination of increasing global liquidity and the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) creates a "perfect setup" for a potential Bitcoin breakout.
ETF Inflows and Market Sentiment
Additional momentum could come from renewed Bitcoin ETF inflows. Data from Farside Investors showed that Bitcoin ETFs saw positive net inflows of $35.9 million on August 16, marking two consecutive days of positive flows. This follows a quarter in which institutional Bitcoin ETF adoption grew by over 27%, with 262 new firms investing in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Could Bitcoin Hit $86,000?
Looking ahead, some analysts believe that Bitcoin's next major price target could be as high as $86,000. Titan of Crypto, another popular analyst, highlighted a "megaphone" chart pattern that suggests Bitcoin could reach this level if it manages to break out in September. The megaphone pattern, characterized by at least two higher highs and two lower lows, typically occurs in highly volatile markets and often indicates either a macro top or bottom.
However, there are risks to the downside. Rekt Capital cautioned that Bitcoin has yet to close above its current downtrend on the daily chart, meaning lower lows could be possible in the short term, with potential support levels at $54,000 and $50,000.
Key Resistance and Liquidation Triggers
Bitcoin faces a critical resistance level at $59,500. A successful break above this threshold could trigger the liquidation of over $800 million in leveraged short positions across various exchanges. Should Bitcoin rally above $59,900, short liquidations could surpass $1 billion, according to data from Coinglass.
As September approaches, all eyes are on Bitcoin to see whether it will follow historical patterns and break out to new highs, or if it will face further challenges before resuming its upward trajectory.
