According to Jinshi, the main trading theme in the past two weeks is the macro-recession expectation, and commodities have experienced an overall correction. However, the US economic data released yesterday has improved, with GDP growth exceeding expectations, domestic demand and investment still strong, the labor market stable, and inflation slightly exceeding expectations. In the short term, the market may shrink its trading for recession, which is reflected in the rebound of major industrial products including crude oil and copper.
Fundamentally, this week's data is positive, and EIA data shows that both crude oil and refined oil inventories in the United States have decreased. The positive fundamental data and the expected improvement in macroeconomic sentiment will lead to a rebound in oil prices in the short term, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the macroeconomic level is expected to restart the interest rate cut transaction in the second half of the year. In addition, the industrial product inventories of both China and the United States are at a year-on-year low, and a resonance replenishment cycle is expected to start in the future. On the fundamentals, the overall low crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production cuts will continue to provide support for oil prices. Under the conditions of demand recovery in China and the United States, oil prices are suitable for long positions on dips.
