● U.S. ADP employment in June was 150,000, the smallest increase since January 2024
According to Odaily Planet Daily, the number of ADP employment in the United States in June was 150,000, which was expected to be 160,000 and the previous value was 152,000. This is the smallest increase since January 2024.
● Latest US unemployment claims exceed expectations
According to Odaily Planet Daily, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending June 29 was 238,000, exceeding the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 233,000. At the same time, the four-week average of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending June 29 was 238,500, and the previous value was 236,000. In addition, the number of continuing unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending June 22 was 1.858 million, exceeding the expected 1.84 million and the previous value was 1.839 million.
● Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Economic activity growth may gradually cool down
According to Wu, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June 12 meeting on July 3. The minutes showed that due to high inflation, Fed officials were generally satisfied with a wait-and-see stance and did not have enough confidence to cut interest rates. However, some policymakers called for close attention to signs that the labor market may weaken faster than expected at last month's meeting. The vast majority of participants believed that the growth of economic activity seemed to be gradually cooling down.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX) fell to 0.05, indicating market differentiation. Over the past five years, the two have been highly positively correlated during the pandemic and between late 2021 and 2022. Both are rising significantly in early 2024. However, while SPX continues to hit new highs, BTC hovers around $60,000, occasionally falling below this level. BTC and SPX have been negatively correlated four times since 2019, each time indicating local lows for Bitcoin prices.
● Mt.Gox may have started paying back creditors, with on-chain bitcoin movement increasing 10-fold
According to Foresight News, Charles Edward, founder of digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments, said that Mt.Gox may have begun to repay creditors. According to its disclosed data, a large amount of Bitcoin moved on the chain, and the amount of movement was 10 times more than the previous peak.
● QCP Capital warns that Mt.Gox's release of Bitcoin could exacerbate bearish market sentiment
According to Odaily Planet Daily, QCP Capital pointed out in its market analysis that investors are worried that Mt.Gox may bring a lot of selling pressure to the market after distributing bitcoins, thus fueling bearish sentiment. QCP Capital said: "Mt.Gox's bitcoin release is expected to start this week, and the release of up to 140,000 bitcoins may continue to put pressure on the market, especially because the exact release schedule is not yet known." Earlier, it was reported that Mt.Gox will distribute 142,000 bitcoins worth nearly $9 billion to creditors between July and October.
● QCP Capital: US stocks soared due to Powell's statement, but BTC and ETH failed to follow the rise
According to Wu Shuo, QCP Capital issued a statement stating that the U.S. stock market soared to new highs due to Powell’s statement that the U.S. economy is developing along a de-inflation path, but this rising momentum failed to be transmitted to BTC and ETH, with prices hovering at $60,000 and $3,300 respectively. Above the dollar. Despite the sell-off, the options market remains biased to the bullish side, suggesting the market is still anticipating a year-end rebound, consistent with the significant buying interest observed in long-term options in the $100,000/120,000 range. Looking ahead, BTC is expected to remain subdued in the third quarter as the market remains uncertain about the supply released by Mt. Gox.
● 10x Research predicts Bitcoin may face downside risks
According to TechFlow, 10x Research pointed out in its latest market report that the combination of Bitcoin's long-term technical aspects, on-chain signals, traffic (especially miner inventory) and market structure data may overwhelm the bullish arguments from the US presidential election and potential interest rate cuts in the short term. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has returned to the range of $60,000 to $61,000, and a fall below this range may trigger liquidation. Last weekend, Bitcoin's timely rebound in extremely low trading volume led to multiple short stops, but this upside risk has been reduced, and the downside risk has become a reality. 10x Research reiterated its medium-term view that the market will further correct downward.
● Bitcoin volatility index BitVol fell to its lowest level in nearly five months
According to BlockBeats, on July 3, BitVol, a Bitcoin volatility index jointly launched by financial index company T3 Index and options trading platform LedgerX, fell to 44.77 yesterday, close to the lowest level since early February, with a daily decline of 4.4%. The BitVol index measures the 30-day expected implied volatility derived from the price of tradable Bitcoin options. Implied volatility refers to the volatility implied by the actual option price. It is the volatility inferred by substituting the actual option price and other parameters except volatility σ into the B-S option pricing formula. The actual price of an option is formed by the competition of many option traders. Therefore, the implied volatility represents the market participants' views and expectations on the future of the market, and is therefore regarded as the closest to the actual volatility at the time.
● Carbon emissions from large US tech companies exceed those from Bitcoin mining
According to Odaily Planet Daily, data shows that since 2019, the carbon emissions of large US technology companies have exceeded the total emissions of Bitcoin global mining since 2014. Amazon's annual carbon dioxide emissions are greater than Bitcoin global mining emissions. In 2021, Amazon reported 71.54 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, while Bitcoin mining's annual emissions are estimated to be 65.4 million tons.
Other large tech companies such as Google and Microsoft have annual emissions of 14.3 million tons and 15.3 million tons respectively, making their total emissions far greater than Bitcoin.
