According to Jinshi.com, Ben Snider, senior strategist of Goldman Sachs' U.S. portfolio strategy team, said that although Goldman Sachs' forecast of CPI growth of about 0.3% is consistent with the market consensus, if the actual data is 0.3%, the market should still have room to rise. This depends on the sub-item data and PPI data. Because this will support Goldman Sachs' baseline expectation of a rate cut in July, while the market expects that the probability of a rate cut in July is only about 1/4.
The downside risk from hot data is greater than the upside risk from mild data, as the market has already priced in 1.5-2 rate cuts this year, 3 rate cuts next year, and a strong growth outlook. Even if we get friendly inflation data, it will be difficult to price in a rate cut much higher without the growth outlook surprising to the downside. The stock market still seems to reflect a very strong growth outlook.
