$BTC Dragon Head and Snake Tail, last year was the Dragon Head, the market was at its best, this year is the Snake Tail, with a transition between bull and bear. A couple of days ago, someone asked if we are at the tail end of this bull market, reasoning that the weekly MACD is about to form a death cross.

Firstly, using the weekly MACD death cross as an indicator to predict whether the bull market has ended is not a problem, but currently, the BTC weekly MACD is not about to form a death cross, it’s just that the volume is not as strong. The monthly MACD is very strong, with increasing bullish momentum, indicating that there is still potential for new highs in the future. From these two major indicators, we are not currently in the bull tail phase.

Then, looking at the patterns of the four halving cycles since the birth of BTC, we are also not in the bull tail phase. The bull tail of each halving cycle generally ends in the fourth quarter of the fourth year after the end of the bear market (usually around mid-November) or in mid-January of the following year. The bear market of this halving cycle ended in 2022, so the bull tail of this cycle will definitely end around mid-November this year. Because the halving time of this cycle overlaps significantly with the previous cycle’s halving time, the timing of the bull tail will also be very similar.

PS: In the previous bull market, I accurately predicted the peak time of the bull market to be around mid-November 2021, eight months in advance.

There are a few coins with their own halving cycles, which are different from BTC. For example, LTC and ETC, where LTC's halving occurs about six months before BTC, so its bull market peak usually arrives about six months earlier than BTC's peak, meaning that in this bull market, LTC's peak is expected around April to May, after which there will be no new highs. ETC around June. Doge is also expected around April to May. These coins do not completely synchronize with BTC and ETH, so attention is needed.