**Toncoin at Risk? Declining Burn Rate Signals Potential 22% Drop**
Toncoin has fallen to **$4.80**, its lowest level since **November 6**, marking a **33% decline** from its peak that month. Data suggests this downturn coincides with increased exchange inflows, indicating continued investor sell-offs. Over the past week, more than **240,000 $TON tokens** have been transferred to exchanges.
Meanwhile, **Ton Stat** data shows a sharp decline in TON’s daily burn rate. On **January 28**, only **5,805 tokens** (worth around **$27,000**) were burned—significantly lower than the **monthly high of 15,000**. A decreasing burn rate often reflects bearish sentiment, as fewer tokens are being removed from circulation.
Adding to the pressure, newly minted TON tokens are increasing in supply, pushing **annual inflation** to its highest level in nearly six months. The inflation rate now stands at **0.37%**, up from last year’s low of **0.337%**.
The broader **$TON ecosystem** is also struggling, with major projects like **Notcoin** and **Hamster Kombat** hovering near their lowest levels.
### **Technical Outlook**
📉 **TON: $4.791 (-1.29%)**
- TON’s price remains in a **downtrend**, testing the **$4.70** support and the lower boundary of a **symmetrical triangle pattern**.
- A **death cross** has formed, with the **50-day and 200-day EMAs crossing**, a historically bearish indicator.
- Momentum indicators like the **RSI** and **Money Flow Index** are weakening, suggesting further downside risk.
- If the decline continues, **TON could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.78**—a potential **22% drop** from its current price.
⚠️ **Traders should monitor key support levels as bearish signals mount.**