The entire crypto industry is based on a deeply flawed incentive system.
Author:Happy
Compiled by: TechFlow
Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000; we have a pro-crypto president, and yet, oddly, everyone seems angry.
The Overton Window has completely shifted. This time, things are different, but not in the way we expected.
Trump’s presidency presents a perplexing dilemma—what does this mean for my digital assets? A myriad of thoughts race through my mind.
On the one hand, he is the most powerful man in the world, and yet he is openly “posting” for our cryptocurrency.
But on the other hand, he used his power and influence to launch Meme coins that diluted the market value, profited for his family, and tried to maximize capital extraction in this space.
Reality is often stranger than fiction.
Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, backers devised a game theory scenario that predicted how Bitcoin would gradually take over the world. They believed that governments would first fight against us, and eventually we would win. On the surface, this seems to be happening.
Bitcoin has indeed won. It has transformed from its past image as “money for evil people, used to fund illegal activities” to “free money”, now accepted and promoted by the world’s most powerful institutions, individuals, and even countries.
Celebrities like Larry Fink, Donald Trump, Stanley Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, and Elon Musk have all spoken positively about Bitcoin at some point, a stark contrast to a decade ago when the only use for Bitcoin might have been to buy a pizza or have environmental protesters glue themselves to your driveway and accuse you of “destroying the planet.”
However, for those who spend 16 hours a day staring at a computer screen, chatting with friends on the Internet, and speculating wildly in virtual currencies: I think the future may become more bizarre and more difficult.
Throughout the history of cryptocurrency, we have been imagining the changes that these technologies may bring in the “future.” “The whole world will be on the blockchain,” “Everyone will trade in stablecoins,” “NFTs will replace physical art,” and “Decentralized Finance (DeFi) will replace the traditional banking system.”
But historically, these visions have never really come to fruition. The technology is not there yet, and governments are hostile to this space. They would rather we didn't exist, so they'll do whatever it takes to suppress us.
Therefore, many teams have to focus on designing products that can avoid legal risks and maximize the price of coins. However, the design that truly focuses on user experience has long been ranked at the bottom of the priority list.
In a way, this situation is very good for us internet geeks. In order to drive up the price of coins and avoid legal risks, a major strategy adopted by many project teams is to directly distribute tens of thousands of dollars of "free money" to the likes of us through airdrops.
According to CoinGecko statistics, the total amount of the top 50 airdrops is as high as $26 billion.
Since the environment at the time made it almost impossible for truly great products to emerge, we instead pretended that these projects had achieved their goals and valued them accordingly.
As a result, we have witnessed many strange phenomena: Layer 1, which has no users, has a valuation higher than most traditional technology companies; the valuation of "Ponzi stablecoins" that rely on new capital injections to maintain their value even exceeds the GDP of some countries; the transaction price of ape pictures is even higher than some real estate.
What I am trying to say is that this entire crypto industry is built on a deeply flawed incentive mechanism.
While many of us criticize this system, it’s just as easy to get rich just by talking about building something as it is by actually building it, and we also directly benefit from it.
However, I think this may be about to change.
With the advent of pro-cryptocurrency government and regulatory policies, we finally have the opportunity to design serious products with real uses for the people who really need them.
This is great news for the industry as a whole, but I have no idea what it means for us “speculators”.
In a world where legal clarity drives real innovation, will innovators continue to give us “free money” via airdrops?
When the legal environment is clearer, will more professionals enter the on-chain ecosystem, thereby weakening the current "speculative spirit"?
If crypto projects achieve technological breakthroughs and attract “real users,” what will be the fate of applications that still have no users?
If governments shift from hostility to support, will we blindly switch to using more centralized blockchains?
When the threshold for creating tokens drops to zero, will all tokens be diluted and lose their value?
As higher quality applications continue to emerge, will we see a large influx of real users entering the on-chain economy and spending funds? Will these funds stay on-chain for a long time, or will they be withdrawn back into the traditional economy?
Ultimately, are we heading towards a situation similar to Web 2.0, where a few companies make all the money and other projects pale in comparison?
Does your family’s future really depend on whether you buy those seven coins? If you miss out, are you doomed to poverty because you held onto Ethereum for too long?
Will Michael Saylor sell all his Bitcoin on impulse? It sounds ridiculous, but if it happened, we would still be left with nothing.
Will the Ethereum Foundation suddenly disband and we can only watch Vitalik frantically create a new blockchain with his "Milady spirit"?
What would happen if Trump decided to launch an “American Chain” that airdropped tokens to every citizen while imposing heavy taxes on other chains and tokens?
Will these changes drive up the price of coins, or will they cause the market to crash?
Honestly, I had absolutely no answer. This was probably the most confusing moment I’ve felt in the past five years.
The only thing I know for sure is that everything will change and the cryptocurrency world in four years will be very different than it is now.
So, how do I deal with these changes?
Frankly speaking, I am not smart and I just made some money by chance in the past few years. Therefore, I decided to reduce my investment risk and withdraw some funds from the crypto market.
I can no longer afford to bet 95% of my net worth on those “cryptocurrencies” that plummet 95% every few years.
I couldn’t bear to tell my girlfriend that I was betting our future on Trump fulfilling his campaign promises. And before that, I had already bet everything on him winning the election.
However, I think I might be able to do better in the future. After all, now I know that even if I screw up, I won’t end up on the street because I have already transferred some of my assets into “real assets”.
At the same time, I am also quite terrified about the advanced scams and phishing that may emerge this year. Now that we have AI that can write better content than most humans, I think it is only a matter of time before we have these bots specifically designed to scam you out of your private keys.
In order to deal with possible risks in the future, I am also considering hedging. It is more important than ever to adopt a decentralized strategy of multiple devices, multiple wallets, and multiple chains. I am also using a hardware wallet.
I will continue to hold all my Bitcoins. It is the only asset in the crypto space that I truly believe in, and I believe that Bitcoin still has huge growth potential in the next decade.
As for my plan, I will just take it as it comes. The future will be full of unknowns and surprises, and innovation will continue to emerge. The crypto space will usher in huge developments, and it will also bring countless opportunities.
I want to be able to stay flexible. I want to have some stablecoins on hand so I can participate in all the exciting new projects — whether they are experimental, seemingly ridiculous, or those based on meme culture.
I don’t want to take any of this too seriously, I want to have fun with it and make some money and have a good time.
This is my plan: take profits when the time is right, make sure I have a stable life, continue to HODL my Bitcoin, and then wait and see what happens before trying to profit from the next opportunity.
The future may be full of uncertainty and unusual, but no matter what, make sure you at least have fun with it.
Final reminder: Don't take this article as financial advice, I'm just a human, maybe even stupid. If you sell your coins, they may go up to a trillion dollars, or if you hold on, they may go down to zero. So, close this page and don't read it anymore. Don't follow me, I'm just talking nonsense.
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