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Ethereum (ETH) has seen a significant accumulation trend, with large holders adding 330,000 ETH worth over $1.08 billion in the past two weeks. Despite this buying spree, ETH remains the only cryptocurrency in the top 10 by market capitalization to show negative returns over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko.Whale Accumulation Signals OptimismOn-chain data analyzed by MAXPAIN, a crypto market analyst, reveals that Ethereum addresses holding between 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have aggressively accumulated tokens since January 7, 2025, reminiscent of a similar event in April 2024, when the same cohort accumulated over 620,000 ETH, driving a 66% rally in the token's value.Additionally, Ethereum's daily active addresses have increased to 180,000, suggesting that fresh capital inflows could soon translate into bullish momentum.Declining Retail Participation Despite Whale ActivityHowever, market data presents a mixed picture. According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum's spot trading volume has declined drastically, falling from $52 billion in January 2021 to $8 billion in 2025, marking an 84% drop. Analysts believe that while institutional accumulation remains strong, retail interest appears to be waning in this bull market.Technical Analysis Points to $5,000 TargetTechnical traders are closely monitoring Ethereum's chart formations for bullish signals. Analyst Jelle has identified an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming alongside ascending triangle patterns on the weekly chart. These setups historically indicate a potential breakout if resistance levels are breached.Meanwhile, Alec, a derivative trader, highlights Ethereum's current price tightening on both low (30-minute) and high (1-day) time frames, suggesting that a large move is imminent, but uncertainty remains about the direction.Despite growing optimism, Ethereum faces an immediate hurdle at the $4,100 resistance level, which has proven difficult to surpass since early 2024. Analysts agree that flipping this key level into support on daily and weekly charts would open the door for a rally toward $5,000 and beyond.Market Sentiment and OutlookCrypto market analysts, including Cold Blooded Shiller, believe that Ethereum could hit $5,000 by March, though sentiment around the asset remains lukewarm. Many traders and investors have shifted their focus to Bitcoin and other high-performing altcoins, adding to Ethereum’s current underperformance.Ethereum's path to $5,000 hinges on breaking through the $4,100 resistance, sustained accumulation from whales, and renewed retail interest. If bullish momentum builds, ETH could enter price discovery mode, but without overcoming these critical barriers, the token may continue to struggle against bearish sentiment, according to Cointelegraph.