ETH showed a weak fluctuation yesterday, with the price consistently operating between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands. The short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) continue to extend downward and are in a bearish arrangement, indicating strong downward momentum. The price has repeatedly failed to effectively rebound after being pressured near $3220.

Key Observation:

  • $3129 became yesterday's short-term low, bulls are trying to build support in this area.

  • Both the 4-hour MACD and RSI indicators show weakness, with no clear reversal signal in the short term.

Today's Technical Analysis

  1. Bollinger Bands (BOLL):
    The current price is close to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that there is certain support below, but there is obvious pressure above, with the middle band ($3280) becoming the first challenge target for short-term bulls.

  2. Moving Average System (MA and EMA):
    The moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, with MA5 and MA10 diverging downward, and EMA7 forming resistance at $3220, indicating that the price trend remains weak in the short term.

  3. Support and Resistance:

    • First Support Level: $3200

    • Second Support Level: $3120

    • First Resistance Level: $3280

    • Second Resistance Level: $3340

  4. Trading Volume:
    Yesterday's trading volume shrank, indicating cautious market sentiment. If today's volume does not effectively increase, the height of the rebound may be limited.

Bearish Strategy:

  • Entry Point: If the price rebounds to the $3280 area, consider attempting to enter a short position.

  • Take Profit Targets: First target at $3220, second target at $3180.

  • Stop Loss Level: Set above $3300, strictly control risk.

Bullish Strategy (Cautious):

  • Entry Point: If the price retraces to $3120 and shows a stop-loss signal, a light long position can be attempted.

  • Take Profit Targets: First target at $3200, second target at $3250.

  • Stop Loss Level: Set below $3100.

Summary and Direction Judgment

ETH's overall trend today remains weak, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $3200 support and the strength of the rebound. In the short term, if the price cannot break through $3280, it will continue to maintain a fluctuating downward pattern. Conversely, a breakthrough of $3280 is expected to probe the $3340 area, but it requires accompanying volume.

Direction Judgment:

  • Short-term bearish, mainly positioning short trades on rallies;

  • If it reaches key support and shows a rebound signal, consider trying a long position with a light position.

Recommendation: Strictly adhere to stop-loss, flexibly adjust operating strategies in conjunction with market sentiment.

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