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For over a decade, Bitcoin has maintained a four-year cycle, a rare characteristic among financial assets. But will this cycle continue, or are we entering a period of stability that replaces volatility? The answer depends on how blockchain is perceived: not just as a speculative tool, but as a solid foundation for the digital future.
If crypto is seen as a lottery ticket, it offers the chance for quick wealth but comes with high risks. Conversely, if blockchain is the pillar of the digital economy, a more stable growth era may be on the horizon.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are transitioning from strong "waves" to a phase of sustainable growth. Support from policies and financial products, such as ETF approvals, is driving this movement. As Carlota Perez once said about the "deployment era," crypto is no longer just a tool for quick wealth, but is gradually becoming an essential foundation of the digital economy.
While huge profits will be less common, solid assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum no longer face catastrophic declines. Instead, they are being seen as financial pillars, paving the way for a more stable and robust market.
The market will not be completely immune to corrections. Withdrawals and price fluctuations are still an inevitable part of the cycle. However, deep declines of 85-95% may no longer occur. Instead, corrections could be limited to about 60% from the peak. With Bitcoin's current 200-week SMA around $40,000, this price merely reflects a gentle correction.
ETF products for Bitcoin and Ethereum have opened a new wave of investment, attracting institutional investors. This not only alleviates the inherent volatility of the crypto market but also brings it closer to traditional finance.
ETFs not only increase transparency and accessibility but also reinforce confidence in the sustainability of Bitcoin and Ethereum. These assets are proving to be solid pillars in the digital economy.
One of the biggest challenges for investors is the pessimistic mindset and short-termism. Pessimism can easily make us miss the opportunity to build a long-term portfolio. This requires investors to be patient and have a strategic vision, focusing on the long-term potential of blockchain technology rather than short-term fluctuations.
Visionary investors will reap great success as the crypto market matures. This is not just a story about immediate profits, but also an opportunity to participate in building the digital economy platform for the future. This development requires continuous innovation and adaptability, helping crypto become the center of global financial solutions.
Overall, 2025 and the following years will be a crucial period for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market. With support from traditional financial products and increasing acceptance, crypto is gradually asserting its key role in the modern economy. This journey is not just for speculators, but for anyone wishing to contribute to the transformation of the financial world.
TL;DR
View crypto as a technology infrastructure, not a lottery ticket for quick wealth.
Evaluate the market cycle from a long-term perspective, avoiding overly short-term decisions.
Leverage the "Deployment" phase to accumulate experience and build a position before the market matures further.
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By Chris Burniske