Today is a big day in the macro scene!

Lets review some of the data that released today, ahead of tomorrow's PCE print. There are two key metrics from both the labor and productivity stand point I want to discuss today. Lets dive, starting with the labor market.

Context: Inflation can be tamed best if national productivity decreases and the labor market weakens to reduce demand.

Jobless Claims

Overview: this metric is relatively self explanatory. It is a data set that reports the number of new jobless claims. Data is collected on a weekly basis but is reported to the public as a monthly figure.

The Federal Reserve has maintained a strong labor market as measured by unemployment and jobless claims. However, if they want to control inflation properly, this will need to change. Despite QT measures, the job market remains robust and demand has been properly satiated.

Actual = 186k

Expected = 205k

Last Month = 192k

Conclusion: for the Fed to have evidence that "things are breaking" they would want to see a sustained uptrend in Jobless claims. This metric is measured month by month, but another data set known as "continuing jobless claims" provides insight into the total number of unemployment people. Even analyzing this metric reveals a robust labor market.

Real Gross Domestic Product:

Overview: this is the headliner metric to assess a nations productivity, This metric might be familiar with a basic background in economics. It is taken at face value in a "top down" methodology to assess a productivity.

It is measured as a % relative to the quarter before.

Positive Values imply economic growth

Negative Values imply economic contraction

Actual = 2.9%

Expected = 2.8%

Last Quarter = 3.2%

Conclusion: the economy grew at a reduced pace. This is great for the bulls because it shows net economic growth. However, it is very hard to control inflation properly in an expanding environment.

Final Thoughts..

Has the Fed Controlled Inflation? We will find tomorrow with the PCE Print. PCE is the same as CPI, but it excludes Food and Energy.

Actual PCE = ?

Expected PCE = 4.4%

Last Month = 4.7%

Stay tuned for tomorrow's article