If you thought cryptocurrencies lived in their own world, unconcerned by macroeconomic indicators, think again. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which show changes in the number of jobs in the United States, throw a party for the crypto market every now and then. Well, it’s time to talk about how these reports have become the main conductors of crypto chaos.
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NFP and crypto: what is the relationship?
At first glance, it seems that employment statistics should only affect stocks, bonds, or the dollar. But no. Bitcoin, as the true "king of chaos", reacts to these reports with such speed that sometimes it seems that its traders work for the same Fed as analysts.
When NFP exceeds expectations, the dollar becomes stronger and crypto falls. When the numbers disappoint, the crypto market breaks away, as if after a long "bear" season. The irony is that most crypto enthusiasts hate traditional economics, but continue to trade as if they live under the dictates of the Federal Reserve.
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2024: Lessons from last year
The last year has shown how much NFPs can shake up the crypto market. For example:
In March 2024, when the data came out much better than expected, Bitcoin lost 5% in a few hours — as if the US economy had personally offended him.
In September, on the contrary, weak NFP data forced Bitcoin to break through an important level and exit a multi-month flat.
This proves: crypto, although it screams decentralization, still dances to the economic beat of traditional markets.
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What does NFP mean for traders in 2025?
1. Increased volatility:
Expect big candles on the chart every time these numbers appear. Speculators are already waiting like hawks to play on the market's emotions.
2. Trend change:
If NFP consistently points to a slowdown in the economy, it could be a catalyst for the next alt season, when investors will rush to seek out risky assets.
3. Market maturity test:
If crypto ever stops reacting so violently to macro data, it will be proof that it has moved into a different league. But for now, it is behaving like an unpredictable teenager.
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Criticism and oddities
Doesn't it seem absurd that digital assets, which should live by their own laws, are so dependent on statistics about American waiters and construction workers? It's like revolutionaries suddenly asking the king for permission.
The cryptocurrency market should be autonomous, but instead it allows traditional markets to dictate its terms. This raises the question: does crypto have a future without the influence of macro data?
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Conclusion: Should you pay attention to NFP?
If you're a crypto enthusiast who plans to "hold until the end," this data probably won't bother you much. But if you're a trader, NFP is your main indicator for short-term market movements.
The irony is that even those who loudly shout about “crypto independence” continue to sit by their monitors on the first Friday of every month, waiting for this data. Which means that while crypto is growing, the traditional economy continues to pull the strings.
