In the trading world, the movement of investment asset values ​​is influenced by many things. Starting from economic events, social politics, and various moments and other things.

This is the basis for traders' analysis in making decisions when playing trading. In addition, one important aspect that must be known and can affect the movement of asset prices in the market is the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data.

Reported from MIFX, Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) is data released by the US Bureau of Labor on the first Friday of every month. However, for March 2023, NFP data will be released on Friday of the 2nd week, precisely at 20.30 WIB. This delay is not a problem, because the NFP release can indeed be postponed in the 2nd week to Friday of the 2nd week.

"NFP is also high-impact economic data that affects price volatility in the forex market. NFP data is a report related to the increase in the number of workers in all sectors, except agriculture, entrepreneurship, household work, government employees, the military, and non-profit institutions," explained MIFX in its official statement, Thursday (9/3/2023)

For traders, NFP is referred to as big data. This is because before and after the NFP data release, the price of financial instruments such as forex and commodities can move irregularly or volatile.

There are two perspectives that can be used to interpret the NFP release against the USD against other countries' currencies. This can be seen from whether the NFP data release is higher than the previous month and higher than the consensus.

If the NFP release is higher than before and higher than consensus, then this indicates that the US economy is increasingly expansive. So this condition tends to push the USD value higher and stronger.

This condition also results in major forex pairs such as GBP/USD and EUR/USD moving down/bearish. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair will tend to move up/bullish. The opposite applies to the USD if the NFP data release is lower than the previous month or lower than consensus.

In estimating the NFP data release, traders usually analyze it based on leading indicators type US economic data that has been released for the February 2023 period. The release includes the performance of ISM Manufacturing, S&P Global PMI Manufacturing, and JolTs Job Opening.

In the release, it can be seen that if the release of this indicator data increases or at least at the expansion level ≥ 50, then the potential for the NFP release to be better than the consensus and from the previous month, and vice versa.

In addition, based on the February 2023 release, it is likely that the NFP data release this week will range from 250,000-400,000. The estimated NFP data for February 2023 tends to be lower when compared to the NFP achievement in January 2023.

This condition still shows the strength of US economic activity, especially considering the estimated release of this NFP could exceed consensus. Overall, MIFX also sees the potential for the USD to continue to strengthen, while commodity prices and indices have the potential to be depressed after the release of the February 2023 NFP.

It should be noted that if the NFP result is higher than the consensus, then the Fed and the central banks of major world countries will tend to continue to raise the benchmark interest rates. That will result in the strengthening of the US Dollar Index becoming more significant.

The implications of the strengthening of the US Dollar Index are, the depreciation of the global currency exchange rate against the USD, the price of Gold will be corrected, and the price of commodities will be depressed. This happens because the increase in the benchmark interest rate in a country as big as the US can suppress the rate of consumption and productivity of the global market, as the interest burden becomes more expensive.

The continued rise in global benchmark interest rates has raised concerns about a potential recession. If a recession does occur, MIFX sees the potential for global central banks to rush to cut benchmark interest rates; this should have a positive impact on commodity prices.#NFPCryptoImpact