The holiday in the U.S. is over, liquidity returns! Bitcoin breaks 100,000; where will the wealth effect concentrate?
Regarding ETFs, on January 6, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $987 million, while Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $128 million. The funds that left the market at the end of last year have shown a significant recovery after the New Year, and the U.S. market funds are beginning to revive.
In terms of market trends, Bitcoin rebounded as expected, but the increase in trading volume is relatively low. This volume does not support a sustained price increase and the initiation of a new trend. The market is likely to encounter resistance and fall back; while a new high is not ruled out, even if a new high occurs, Bitcoin is likely to fake breakthrough and return to a high-level consolidation area.
Altcoins failed to rise: divergence between technical analysis and market sentiment.
Despite Bitcoin's strong performance, altcoins have not followed suit. For example, Ethereum should have shown a key technical signal by breaking above $3,720, but it faced resistance at $3,740, forming a clear selling pressure signal. Based on the analysis of concentrated distribution of chips, there is no significant resistance at this position, but the market encounters a bottleneck here, leading to a price retracement.
This phenomenon reflects the struggle between bulls and bears in the market. Some large funds are performing short positions, utilizing the short-term fluctuations in the market to create price volatility, which restricts the rise of altcoins. The performance of altcoins contrasts with the strong trend of Bitcoin, and market sentiment is evidently more complex.
The key level for ETH is still at 4000. Only by breaking through 4000 can it enter a recovery trend, similar to Bitcoin breaking 69,000 or 100,000. Currently, there is no independent market trend, and it mainly follows the trend. The potential for ETH includes observing whether there are ecosystem-related narratives emerging in the crypto space, as well as watching for signs of ETF breakthroughs in the U.S.
Today let's talk about SOL.
In financial markets, whether it's stocks, futures, forex, or crypto markets, the profit effect is paramount. Ordinary users do not understand much technical knowledge and principles; they just want to speculate and make money.
Whether it's meme coins or the currently hot AI agents, once they go mainstream, they can easily be speculated to $1 billion with tens of times growth in just a few days. The key point is not whether meme coins and AI tokens have value, but rather that many tools have been created around them, greatly enhancing the SOL ecosystem.
The currently popular AI agents are mostly on SOL. Tokens like AI16Z and Swarms have seen dozens of times in growth in just a few days. Users can easily utilize the platform's tools to create their own AI agents, which further strengthens the ecological prosperity of SOL.
Whether it's memes or the current AI agents, they are essentially not very useful. 'AI agents' sounds impressive, but it is nothing more than various large frameworks and API calls from Web2, packaged with a token concept for the market to speculate on. But none of this is important; the secondary market needs to create hotspots and concepts to give users a profit incentive. From this perspective, SOL is likely to remain a choice for users for a long time in the future.
Additionally, if SOL passes the ETF application this year, the upper limit will naturally increase.
I believe that the current market is steadily moving upward across all sectors, but the time for rotation has not yet appeared.
80% of the position is placed in relatively stable sectors: holding large coins such as ETH and SOL. These are the BETA assets that I expect will outperform Bitcoin in the market in the near future. The spot positions in Bitcoin will remain unchanged.
Another 20% of the position is for short-term targeting: this 20% is used to address the uncertainty of when this bull market will start to rotate. However, there are currently many 'monster coins' appearing, with stop losses set to prevent significant market declines, and expected take profits, with a high risk-reward ratio.
Recently there has been insider information about a coin, and it is expected to be launched in the next couple of days. Like and comment 333 to get in for free.
