Original defioasis Wu said Real 2025-01-03 09:01 Shandong
Author | defioasis
Editor | Colin Wu
2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after DeFi Summer, with narrative investment opportunities emerging on-chain. According to the author's observation, as the idea of "everything can be meme" becomes more popular and Pump Fun's rapid asset issuance becomes mainstream, Meme can be started from 0, and the upper limit of the market value of on-chain space (without going online on the top CEX) is about 1 billion US dollars. For ordinary users, there is already enough profit space on the chain, and the top CEX has become the last link for on-chain investment exit. Due to the intensified conflict between VCCoin and the community, new assets launched on the top CEX often perform poorly; and most of the old coins that have been launched on the top CEX are struggling, lacking team motivation or failing to keep up with market changes, and are waiting to be unlocked and lying flat.
This article is primarily based on predictions regarding on-chain transactions and investments, focusing on on-chain sub-sectors. It is merely the author's shallow predictions and should not be taken as any investment advice, but rather as a point for consideration.
1. The monthly DEX/CEX volume ratio will exceed 20% for the first time.
According to data from The Block, DEX trading volume exceeded 320 billion USD in December 2024, setting a record for the highest monthly volume, with a year-on-year increase of over 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio reached 11.64% in December 2024, up from 9.55% in December 2023, and the highest monthly trading volume ratio for DEX/CEX reached 13.86%. As Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools led by CEX continue to optimize, this may accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading; the popularity of the Meme sector and its wealth effects are among the important factors driving users from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market value of AI Agents/AI Meme will at least exceed the peak period of NFTs, and there will be at least one AI Agents token with a market value exceeding 10 billion USD.
The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024. Various types of AI Agents have emerged one after another. From the initial chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opening the Pandora's box of AI Agents, to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it creating the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models, it has only been a few months.
Currently, there are at least several frameworks in development and operation in the market, including ai16z - Eliza, Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro - Zerepy, and Dolion Framework, particularly ai16z - Eliza and Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework, which have formed relatively strong ecological moats. Various sub-tokens of AI Agents born from these frameworks are being rapidly introduced to the market.
According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of AI Agents-related tokens currently reaches 12 billion USD, among which Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL plays a role similar to SOL in the Solana network as a trading pair token on the Base network, driving the prosperity of the ecosystem and nurturing the VIRTUAL parent token, making it the highest market value AI Agents-related token at 3.5 billion USD.
3. It is expected that 3-5 vertical launch tracks based on Pump Fun will emerge.
Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for quickly deploying tokens at extremely low costs on the Solana network, with thousands to tens of thousands of Memecoins launched daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have started to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.
In addition, the Memecoin sector is gradually growing, where everything can be a Meme. The demand for segmentation is becoming increasingly strong, evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu, which focuses on AI Agents, and Pump Science, which focuses on DeSci. AI Agents have already become a ten-billion-dollar sector, and DeSci has also begun to show potential with Binance's focus on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this is based on the demand for decentralized issuance of tokens and rapid asset releases under different narratives and imaginations. It is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into more segmented tracks in the future.
4. At least 5 native tokens from the Base ecosystem will be listed on Binance spot.
As a barometer, Binance has listed perpetual contract trades for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any native spot trading in the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effects, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana. Unlike Solana, the ecological effects of Base are more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals series and the Farcaster series, with the ecological market value of the Virtuals series nearing 5 billion USD, placing it in a leading position among Crypto x AI Agents. The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on listings in major exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot trading is launched on Binance.
As a public chain under the compliant exchange Coinbase in the United States, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to establish a fiat channel from Base - USDC to bank accounts. With the formal establishment of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for Crypto are implemented, Coinbase and Base may be the exchanges and networks to benefit first. Additionally, with Jesse Pollak, the head of Base, officially joining Coinbase's executive team in October and leading Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network in Coinbase's strategic vision is expected to further increase.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities reaching a market value of over 1 billion.
Hyperliquid has significantly increased community engagement and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed 2 billion USDC, equivalent to the 15th largest exchange; the total market value of the platform token HYPE once exceeded 10 billion USD, and the FDV even surpassed 30 billion USD.
From the development path of CEX, especially relatively young CEX, most began with excellent performance and liquidity from contracts, but the true brand moat is formed by the wealth effect brought about by exclusive spot trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards bring possibilities for the introduction of exclusive assets, a capability that previous attempts at on-chain exchanges transitioning from contracts to spot trading did not possess. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at issuance. Given the difficulties and high costs of launching on major CEX, starting through spot auction seats on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Known projects that have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki - Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the main market value and trading volume of Hyperliquid spot are concentrated on HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding 100 million USD in market value. With the high market value of HYPE, driving up prices requires more funds; the platform collaborating with some excellent exclusive projects to jointly create the wealth effect of exclusive assets is clearly more cost-effective, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increasing trading volume and reputation of Hyperliquid.
