In the new year, a good start; wishing everyone a happy New Year!

On the first day of the New Year, a decline occurred as expected. This is what I've been saying for the past few days: start the year with a drop first. In fact, when Bitcoin surged yesterday, I thought it would close the month with a bullish candle, but it fell just short. The market performance these past few days has been in line with my expectations, rising at the last moment and then dropping again after the change.

This wave of decline has not actually dipped much and has not yet tested the bottom of 90,000. If the market does not rebound strongly, it will continue to fall.

Many altcoins have also dropped to their support levels, and the overall market is weak, causing people to become anxious.

Many people want to bottom fish at this time, and indeed we have reached the lowest point, hoping for a significant rebound. The problem is that Bitcoin is declining without showing signs of rebounding, and there is a very suppressed feeling at this position.

In response to this issue, I will use data to inform everyone about the current market trend.

To conclude: the future is promising!

(1) Net inflow of USDT and USDC trading over the past year

By analyzing the data of USDT and USDC flowing into exchanges, it is evident that the amount of funds entering exchanges has been rising significantly since early November (November 6), corresponding to the FOMO phase of the U.S. election. Although we can see that the amount of funds is currently declining, it is still above the average inflow before November, indicating that even now, investors still have strong expectations for the future market.

(2) Changes in Bitcoin holdings on exchanges over the past year

The amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges during peak periods shows that more and more Bitcoin is being taken out, with almost no signs of it returning to the exchanges. This indicates that investors buying BTC are still holding and have not exited the market, and currently, the inventory of BTC on exchanges has reached its lowest point since March 2019.

This means it has dropped below a bull-bear cycle, and the level of expectation investors have for BTC is evident. This also indicates that although purchasing power is declining now, investor sentiment remains generally optimistic. It is also clear that as the election progresses, although FOMO sentiment has decreased, a large amount of BTC and ETH is still being rapidly withdrawn from exchanges.

(3) Stablecoin positions on exchanges (mainly USDT and USDC)

The amount of funds flowing in after the election is more than double that of the 2021 bull market, and even though this part of the funds has already reduced FOMO sentiment, it remains higher than during the 2021 bull market.

Moreover, as seen from the previous data, a significant number of investors who bought in this part have not exited the market, which is one of the reasons I judge that the decline is limited.

(4) Bitcoin and Ethereum contract volume

Currently, after fluctuations, the contract weight of BTC and ETH is about the same as the previous low period, indicating that the battle between bulls and bears is almost evenly matched. Therefore, the market is becoming more sensitive to emotions or information.

Overall, simply put, the future is promising. Of course, this future may come with a premise; for instance, for BTC and ETH, which are already compliant cryptocurrencies, the future will be broader, especially for BTC, which is the focus of this cycle. Other altcoins will rely more on market liquidity.

Additionally, from the previous data, we observed that there was a period of decline in investor sentiment after the election; purchasing power and fund volume are gradually decreasing. This is because all driving factors are based on emotions rather than actual liquidity increases.

Therefore, it is important to note that if the closing time is due to a favorable sentiment driven by emotions (such as a transfer of power), there will definitely be a period of decline, and emotions will gradually decrease from the peak of FOMO.

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